At least one Australian has sense about global warming. The redoubtable Tim Flannery, of whom we’ve spoken before, and who was actually named Australian of the Year (can a nation really do that?), is sounding the alarm we’ve been screaming here. The warming is happening faster than the models and experts have been predicting. Here’s his major point: Flannery said predictions in a 2001 UN report, warning the atmosphere was likely to warm by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5-10.4 Fahrenheit) from 1990 to 2100 now appeared conservative. "In the six years since then, we've collected enough data to (check) whether those projections are valid or not," he said. "It turns out they're not valid, but in the most horrible way -- because for the key performance indicators about climate, change is occurring far in advance of the worst-case scenario," he said. "Carbon dioxide's increasing more rapidly, sea levels are rising more rapidly (and) the Arctic ice cap is melting away more quickly than were projected in 2001." His rec? Flannery said nations needed to "de-carbonise" their economies by 2050, increasing reliance on geo-thermal, nuclear and renewable energy. . . . New Zealand is apparently listening, even if Flannery’s idiot PM isn’t and the US is playing autistic like its leader [sic], coming up with a major climate change initiative. . . . Hmm, only takes three years from the mercury emitted from coal-fired power plants to get into the fish we eat. Nice. Would have thought it would take longer. And it adds really good texture to the meat. . . .Nice summary of the global warming policy strategies, such as they are, of the major players here if you want a cheat sheet. . . . CO2 concentrations in the oceans will soon get to the level at which they kick in EPA quality criteria. No worry. They’ll just change the criteria. . . . Over at Scientific American, a couple of interesting energy articles, one on efforts to reduce the tremendous amount of energy burned up by our computers and one on a massive solar scheme that may have promise (while using up water!!!). . . . The UN calling for more investment in climate monitoring tech. Of course, we all remember that Bushnev is cutting funding here in the US, right? . . . New and faster methods of evaluating the health of wetlands being developed, obviously important for the future, if we decide to care about those things. . . . The Busheviks playing word games with clean water projects at the worst possible time, cutting fed support and laying another unfunded mandate on state and local governments. You say you’re not surprised? Well, try this—it’s so bad even Inhofe is critical of Bushnev. Get up off the floor now.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Weather, Water, Energy 9-20-07
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Weather, Water, Energy 9-19-07
Grist links you to Bill McKibben’s book review essay taking down the latest bilge from deniers and obstructionists here. . . . While deniers and obstructionists keep flailing around trying to find one reed that doesn’t break beneath them, major corporations, you know, those well-known liberal, socialist, secular pinkos, are signing up to an agreement to measure the carbon footprints of their products as a means to determine how to reduce their impact on emissions and warming. Haven’t they heard that Jupiter is warming? . . . Or maybe they see handwriting on the wall, like this proposal in ME to have feds require companies to talk about how climate change will impact their bottom lines. . . .Greenland’s glaciers melting faster than predicted and, oh yeah, that melt wasn’t figured into the IPCC’s climate models. Why exactly did that compromised and conservative report get issued again? Of course, in India, their faster-than-usual melting glaciers just mean major water problems for that overpopulated country in the future. Another factor they can’t build into the models yet is the speed of release of methane from permafrost. You remember methane, that greenhouse gas whose sudden release from wetlands is the main suspect in one of the most extreme cases of Earth warming in the planet’s history. If it goes faster than so far modeled, and that looks like a very sure thing, the models will be even that much worse. And not in a good way. This is so much like watching a car wreck in slo mo that it gets literally sickening sometimes. . . . Water vapor building up in the atmosphere, just as predicted in global warming. Bad news—adds independent confirmation of warming along with the temp studies that have been done. Badder news—worse hurricanes in the future. Worst news—it’s a greenhouse gas itself and will just build more positive feedback into the warming cycle. . . . $9 b. for expanded water projects in CA? Let’s see if the voters buy in. . . .Climate Progress links us to this Guardian article quoting a British scientist on the speeding up of warming effects beyond what has been predicted. Sleep well tonight with these quotes in your mind:
The effects of climate change will be felt sooner than scientists realised and the world must learn to live with the effects, experts said today.
Professor Martin Parry, a climate scientist with the Met Office, said destructive changes in temperature, rainfall and agriculture were now forecast to occur several decades earlier than thought.
He said vulnerable people such as the old and poor would be the worst affected, and that world leaders had not yet accepted their countries would have to adapt to the likely consequences.
…………
The report – which had its executive summary released earlier this year – says hundreds of millions of people in developing nations will face natural disasters, water shortages and hunger due to the effects of climate change.
Today Professor Parry, co-chair of the IPCC working group that wrote the report, said: "We are all used to talking about these impacts coming in the lifetimes of our children and grandchildren. Now we know that it's us."
He said the international response to the problem had failed to grasp that serious consequences such as reduced crop yields and coastal flooding were now inevitable. "Mitigation has got all the attention but we cannot mitigate out of this problem. We now have a choice between a future with a damaged world or a severely damaged world."
…………
The experts involved warn that the consequences of rising temperatures are already being felt on every continent, and sooner than expected. It is "probably too late" to avoid some impacts in developing countries because about 1C of warming is already in the climate system, they warn. If it is not kept below 2C – which "currently looks very unlikely to be achieved" – up to 3.2 billion people will face water shortages and up to 600 million will face hunger, they have predicted.
The trade and development minister, Gareth Thomas, told the launch of the report at the Royal Geographical Society: "Failing to tackle it [climate change] will lead to floods, droughts and natural disasters which can destroy poor people's lives as well as their livelihoods."
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Northwest Passage Opened
Not a good thing. Shows warming occurring, and much faster than the models have been predicting. As we’ve been predicting. Would have preferred being wrong.
Reality Check
from a conference David Roberts attended. From one speaker:
1. Aggregate global use of fossil fuels will not fall in the next two decades.
2. American "energy independence" is an unrealistic pipe dream driving bad policy.
3. The Biofuels Initiative won't achieve anything environmentally speaking, and is a grotesque example of pork barrel politics.
4. Consumer and lifestyle steps being taken by Americans are all but irrelevant.
And Joseph Romm at Climate Progress (while batting down one of the truly most clueless of economists, who of course worked for Bushnev) demonstrates how high a carbon tax would have to be to have any impact on our gas prices and thus our driving and the efficiency of our cars. It’s more than anyone will go for. It will take institutional action on a global scale to get us anywhere close in the time we have. And that’s slow in developing, if at all (as in Bushnev’s opening the West to more drilling, like 160% more). I’d sell my coastal properties if I were you.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Weather, Water, Energy 9-13-07
Climate Policy puts up a learned post on the risks of climate policy and never once indicates that the amelioration of those risks can create an entire new world of economic investment and development, opening whole new worlds for invention and creativity. It’s this kind of limited thinking, even by those who have voices in the actual policymaking, that will limit and prevent us from making the changes we need with the speed and scope that is needed. Way to go, guys. . . . Good news for Neanderthals (the real ones, not deniers and obstructionists)—looks like you weren’t killed off by past climate change. Bad news—looks like we humans got you. . . . Climate change and desertification sittin’ in a tree . . . . Ancient fossilized shells that stored old carbon and oxygen isotopes confirming the link, yet one more time, that CO2 and temp rises go together. You'd think this is something the ancient fossil shells in Congress and on talk radio would at least understand their own kind. . . . Governors getting testy with the Bushevik stalling on emissions, many trying to create a de facto national policy through enough state actions. . . . Oil at $80 a barrel = potential inflation = keeping interest rates up. Housing spiral = potential recession = forcing interest rates down. Hmm. This could be a problem. . . . Parking lots as global warming contributors? Let’s see, good arable land covered over by heat-absorbing asphalt that pollutes underground water . . . yeah, could be. Next they’ll be telling us the cooking and eating of meat adds to warming. . . . Nut-crunching time in London, as we used to say. Their plan to limit car use in the city won’t meet emissions goals necessary to be effective against warming. Only banning cars completely will get it done. The first of many cities to face this, I suspect. How they go might set the precedent. In any case, just shows that the “extremists” arguing major lifestyle change might not be that extreme at all. . . . Tell me nature doesn’t have a sense of humor. AL (Alabama, not Alaska) farmers planted more corn to cash in on the ethanol craziness, saw their crops eaten up by drought. At the very least, ironic, yes? . . . One good sign. Muhammed Yunus, the Nobel Peace Prize winner who pioneered “micro-loans,” has set his sites on warming, calling for a three-tier color system to let people know the extent to which products come from renewable sources. The guy is one of the few actual saints on this planet already. Having him on board can’t help but be a good thing. If we could just get him and Natalie Portman to have children . . . but that’s conjuring up all sorts of unpleasant images. Best to move on now. . . . Here’s a headline for you: Dirty energy threatens health of 2 billion - study . But they’re not here, so don’t worry about it. . . . Finally, at Grist, David Roberts has the Wall Street Journal conjuring up carbon numbers, Christie Todd Whitman whoring yet again (this time for nuke), Congress dithering as expected, and, lastly, some of the wisest words on rejecting the “privatization of responsibility” in our efforts you’ll hear in links to Alex Steffen of Worldchanging. David tips you to what he likes best but I liked this part better:
Over the next decade we need a real reckoning of the ecological limitations we face, a public commitment to redesign our civilization to produce widespread prosperity within those limits, collective visions of what such a sustainably prosperous (bright and green) future might look like and a whole lot of innovation on tools for building that future.
Because ultimately, it is only our progress towards building that future -- not our intentions, sympathies or displays of concern -- that matter. If we don't move fast enough, we'll simply be attending a global ecological collapse well-heeled and stylishly attired, watching the planet burn with a glass of organic champagne in hand.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
The Report You're Not Seeing in Our Media [Sic]
The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in its annual review of world affairs that governments needed to do more to tackle a resurgent Al-Qaeda as well as limit the damage from global warming.
Its 400-page report assessed that global events from May 2006 to June 2007 were "discouraging," expressing disappointment that bloody violence in Iraq and Afghanistan had not been curbed and the Middle East crisis had deteriorated.
In part, it attributed events like North Korea's alleged nuclear missile tests and Iran's continued intransigence over its disputed atomic power programme on a White House weakened by its post-war policy in Iraq.
But on Islamist extremism, it said the United States and its allies had fundamentally failed to deal with Al-Qaeda, whose ideology inspired by Osama bin Laden had now taken such root that it would take decades to defeat.
Evidence of their failure to tackle the root causes rather than the symptoms of such extremism was seen in a worrying increase in radicalisation among European-based Muslims in the last 12 months, the IISS said.
…………….
Meanwhile, the think-tank said there was now a growing -- but still not universal -- recognition that global warming exists, may be man-made and that urgent action was needed to tackle the rise in harmful emissions.
Unchecked, the effects of global warming would be "catastrophic -- on the level of nuclear war -- if not in this century, certainly in the next," it said.
Temperature rises had important consequences for global security, having the potential to increase migration, water and food shortages and potentially exacerbate existing flashpoints and tensions, said the IISS.
In a stark warning, it said action taken by individual countries and the international community in the next few years would determine whether the second half of the 21st century would see instability, human tragedy and war or an easing of and adjustment to climate change, with an emphasis on multi-lateralism.
But wasn’t Britney slutty and fat?
Weather, Water, Energy 9-12-07
All that waste and nowhere to go. Nuke waste, that is. Tell me again how this gets better when we shift to more nuke for our energy supply? . . . Warmer water into the Mediterranean, not so good for the ecology and water life there. But la, la, la, we’re wiping out 200 more species so why should we care? (And while in that area, Italy is estimating warming is costing it $69b. a year already.) . . . The palm oil harvest disaster in the name of short-term econ development goes on. . . . Thought-provoking post by David Roberts on the need for clarity demonstrated by our misdirected reaction to 9/11, and an even better response in the first comment. (Roberts also catches John Edwards pretending to be green when he’s not.) . . . Over at Climate Progress, great “New Rules for Climate Action.” My favorite is “Politics may be the art of compromise, but the atmosphere isn’t negotiating.” This is always my point here. We act as if we’re in control here and that we can follow the same process we use to determine what the speed limit should be. Nature is not sitting at the bargaining table. It’s going to do what it’s going to do. We have to address that, not assume it away because we think we can tell it what to do now. Also at Climate Progress, a great takedown of all those “moderates” who are assume away the possibility of extreme climate change happening, then tell us not to worry. . . . A new state court ruling whacks the water use (aka waste) that CA farmers have been doing for decades. Think it just affects them? Wait until you see your vegetable bill soon. . . . Burning off the natural gas that comes along with oil production. $40b. a year’s worth. Move along. No stupidity to see here. . . .CNN just now getting to the Arctic ice loss by 2030 story. America’s Most Trusted News Network.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Good News
For CO2 and higher temps and sea levels.
Australia's PM vows not to quit
Oh, yeah, and for global disease.
World Leaders See the Light on Global Warming
And come up with a workable and realistic plan.
Only problem is, they’re EX-world leaders.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Weather, Water, Energy 9-10-07
Sometimes you do just have to admire good idiocy when you see it. German automakers, invested in big, honking cars, say it’s impossible to meet proposed EU emissions standards because their Porsches would become like compact cars. There should be separate emissions limits for different kinds of cars. Uh, the point isn’t really whether we have sports cars or you have profits. It’s whether we have a planet. Live with it. But we’ll see if the EU has the cajones to stand up to this (bad) nonsense. . . . OTOH, good on Norway for calling a stop to automaker claims there that their cars are “green.” Cars are by definition not “green.” Some do less damage than others, but all are contributors for which alternatives must be found. (And once again for you entrepreneurs, the retrofitting of cars to new fuels may end up being a big time investment opportunity. If you can figure out which fuel(s) will win and convince others to give you money if you’re right.) . . . Skeptical Science illustrates more denier and obstructionist BS here. Nothing new really, but a nice example of the cherrypicking and outright deception involved in the “rebuttals” of what’s clearly happening all around these mendacious tools. . . . Three of the Great Lakes have been losing water at unusually high rates and the WI Senators are finally calling for investigation. Part of it’s probably warming, but sounds like much of it is bad management. Question is, can that be turned around effectively, given the demands that will be placed on those bodies in the near future? . . . Classic crap out of NV. State board ignores reality and danger and okays new coal-fired plants but says they have to take action to capture carbon as soon as the tech is available. When exactly in US history has an industry ever done that if not required to at the time? So much for the “no more coal” imperative. . . . Finally, a UN official is calling BS on the lesser developed nations’ effort to get a waiver on their own emissions until their economies are big time, too. The boat’s on fire, folks. We’ll talk blame when it’s out.
Saturday, September 08, 2007
APEC, OPEC, It Doesn't Matter
As the leaders [sic] at the APEC (yes, Bushnev called it OPEC) meeting dither and deceive, it's becoming clearer and clearer that the sh-t is h-tting faster than models have predicted as the hard-to-model positive feedback loops kick in. The time to act was two decades ago. Now it's just a matter of how bad it gets before we wake up and how much we can stop at that point.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Weather, Water, Energy 9-6-07
Okay, sit down. Praise for China coming. They’re dumping on Australia’s idiot PM’s attempt to end-run UN efforts on global warming to engage a smaller group that Australia could influence better (AKA, stall doing anything meaningful). The US, of course, supported the idiot PM, can't hurt the economy by saving the planet, you know. And knock me back with a feather—China is coming down hard on liquid coal fuels and Japan is swearing that China will be more proactive post-Kyoto. Folks, if China is getting these things and we’re not . . . . Speaking of Japan, it’s trying to get people to commit to fighting global warming by getting them discounts on Big Macs????? I’m not making this up. . . . Classic case of looking at the costs of not doing something but not the costs of not not doing something, this time the clean-up of the Great Lakes. . . . Skeptical Science explains the very small number of glaciers that are growing rather than shrinking, but the brainless ones who have been hooking onto the growing glaciers as proof of their wisdom don’t understand words bigger than two syllables so it’s probably another waste of time. Always keep in mind the high degree of overlap between these people and the folks selling us that Big Business was pushing energy deregulation so consumers could keep more of their money. (And remember how our brilliant legislators on state and fed levels bought the BS then and will likely buy it now.) . . . From Science Daily, word that global warming will likely increase cholera in Africa and birch trees stomping out aspens across northern forests. Sad that this kind of news is so common now that it can’t excite the way it should. . . . Over at Climate Progress, good news (maybe anyway, that bad weather has driven movie profits up this year), bad news (that Australia and its idiot PM (see above) are facing a permanent, Dust Bowl-like drought by mid-century), and no surprise but evil news (that Bushnev has buried a climate satellite that would have enabled us to plan better for the warming). . . . While at Climate Progress, also check this great catch on a 1972 study (yes, that’s 1972) accurately forecasting the global temp increase by 2000. As we’ve been saying about virtually everything the Repubs have fvcked up while Dems have kept their thumbs up their a-ses since Tip O’Neill first blighted the Congress, all the crap we’re going through has been known for almost 4 decades now, global warming, energy, water, economy, degeneration of our media, creeping imperialism, loss of our Constitution, all of it. To hear even the best bloggers talk as if they just woke up to this stuff in the 90s is one of the most depressing things I unfortunately get exposed to. Living these last 35 years watching this all happening in slo-mo and seeing no one paying needed attention or, worse, calling me a doomsayer and the evil “pessimist” when all it was was reality has been even worse. We could have stopped all this sh-t, all of it, by taking it seriously and not admiring ourselves Oprah-style and MisterRogersing everything and all the destructors for so long. Our ignorance of history, humanity’s as well as American, will be our crowning achievement when history finally gets to bite our a-ses good.
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Cowardice on Warming
It’s not just for US media anymore.
These words literally came out of a BBC guy’s mouth:
"It is absolutely not the BBC's job to save the planet," warned Newsnight editor Peter Barron at the Edinburgh Festival last month.
There you go.
Water or Nuke?
Here’s the thing, folks. Nuclear power requires large amounts of water in a wide range of ways. It only makes sense what little sense it does if there will be abundant water available in the future. That doesn’t look likely. Especially in the frickin’ West. Is there a Stupid Competition going on out there?
Sorry, Mr. Pope, Sir
Until you back off your stands on procreation, your “worries” about global warming are as credible as you are. You've done as much to bring on Hell for so many people as anyone.
Wanna Bet Your Heart . . .
that global warming doesn't exist?
Global warming may be melting glaciers and forcing polar bears onto land, but doctors warn it could also affect your heart. "If it really is a few degrees warmer in the next 50 years, we could definitely have more cardiovascular disease," said Dr. Karin Schenck-Gustafsson, of the department of cardiology at Sweden 's Karolinska Institute.
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Weather, Water, Energy 9-4-07
I love when this happens. Over at Grist, they’ve caught the obstructionists among the coal types admitting that the value of “sequestration” is political, not economic or technological. It’s too expensive and complicated to work, but it buys off the lazy, hopeful, or naïve while coal goes merrily along building those new plants that will seal the deal on our horrendous future. No consolation really for what’s going to happen as a result, but it’s nice to have your beliefs about the evil of the people we’re dealing with confirmed in hard copy. (And Joseph Romm affirms the problems here and then goes on to smash up “liquefaction” as a technology here, quite a two-fer.) . . . Speaking of Joseph Romm, he rips a Consumer Digest report on hydrogen cars and their “economy,” which turns out to be more costly and complex than most of its alternatives. (While you’re at Climate Progress, discover why Target is planning to start hyping swimsuits in January.) . . . Skeptical Science gives you more reason to be, well, skeptical about the, well, “science” of the latest deniers and obstructionists here. . . . Proof that the insurance crisis for coastal states due to fear of global warming induced disasters is growing—Stateline.org, the Pew site on state news, has a feature on the subject now. . . . Imagine that. The Chesapeake Bay could be endangered by the increased growth of corn crops as we feed the ethanol frenzy. Not like it’s important or anything. . . . It’s Getting Hot in Here has been connecting dots on extreme weather and global warming and noting how the crisis is finally reaching the blogosphere, although none of our “leaders” appear in the discussion. I guess they’re still too busy gatekeeping and appearing with Colbert. If only they had young children who would suffer for their inattention. And it’s not like we’re watching for the first time in recorded history two Category 5 hurricanes come ashore in the same season or that two hurricanes could be hitting Mexico and Central America at once. . . . oh, wait. . . . Finally, one last note from Joseph Romm's Climate Progress. He has a couple of posts up on ice sheet melt and on more severe hurricanes. That's not news, but his point in both of them is: These things are happening much faster than the climate models have been predicting. IT'S TIME TO STOP SCREWING AROUND, FOLKS.
