Well...not a rant per say...just a guarded reaction to news that might be good and might not: the Pirates have hired Neal Huntington to replace Worthless Dave Littlefield as General Manager. Just like the new president they hired a couple weeks ago, Huntington is saying all the right things so far, and he comes from the Cleveland Indians--pretty much exactly the franchise the Pirates need to emulate.
However, it's not a slam dunk hire. For one thing, he was recently demoted from Cleveland higher-up to...well, less-higher-up. He basically went from GM Mark Shapiro's right hand man to being an advance scout. They say it was by choice--scouting's his #1 skill, and he requested the move--but...yeah, that's a bit strange. However, I will make no judgment until Spring Training. Needless to say, he's got an infinite amount of work to do in the meantime, and we'll see pretty quickly what he's made of. He can't be worse than Dave Littlefield, can he?
(And yes, when Littlefield was hired, everybody was saying "He can't be worse than Cam Bonifay, can he?" He was.)
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™
Friday, September 07, 2007
Friday Pirates...CELEBRATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WOOOOOHOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I can go back to caring!!!!!!!!
Or in the words of Al Czervik...WE'RE ALL GONNA GET LAID!!
And just to re-re-re-emphasize the point...
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Tuesday (okay, Wednesday) Pirates Rant™
When Dave Littlefield is mercifully fired (some time in the next 8-10 years), my one request is for a replacement that is not so horrible at his job that he's mocked by The Onion.
PITTSBURGH—Despite a series of phone calls to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman made right up to Tuesday's 4 p.m. trade deadline, Pirates GM Dave Littlefield was unable to secure the rights to surefire Hall of Famers Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter in exchange for those of rightfielder Xavier Nady. "I don't understand… This was a trade that could have benefited both teams," said Littlefield, frustrated by the Yankees' refusal to consider the trade even after Littlefield sweetened the deal by offering shortstop Jack Wilson for pitcher Mariano Rivera. "We would have gained sorely needed offense in the infield, while the Yankees had a chance to get a little younger and pare payroll at the same time. Plus, they could have bolstered their defense, as Xavier plays first base, too." Littlefield also confirmed that that the St. Louis Cardinals had pulled the plug on a potential Shawn Chacon-for-Albert Pujols deal at the last second.
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™ - Okay, so it’s not Tuesday...
...but yesterday, I was too baffled by what transpired on Trade Deadline Day to actually comment. But a day later, I’m pissed enough to form sentences.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has one of the crustier, more curmudgeonly columnists I’ve ever read. His name is Bob Smizik. Basically, his schtick is “so-and-so stinks.” That’s about all he has to offer. I gave up on Dave Littlefield and the current ownership a long time ago, but half the time Smizik’s columns are so crusty that I get annoyed by him and almost start defending this awful regime. Well...needless to say, I’m not disagreeing with him at the moment.
Heading into this year’s trade deadline, the Pirates had three highly sought-after commodities: veteran relievers. Salomon Torres (who was last seen filing a grievance against the Pirates for getting him to sign a discounted contract by lying to him and saying they’d use one of his baseball compounds in the Dominican Republic), Damaso Marte (who stinks as a closer but as a LOOGY—Lefty One-Out Guy—he’s just about the best in the business, as his current 1.38 ERA would suggest), and Shawn Chacon (who still stinks but has put together a pretty decent year).
How sought-after are veteran relievers at the moment? Well, the esteemed Scott Linebrink (3.79 ERA) was traded by the Padres to Milwaukee for THREE pretty strong minor league pitchers. Octavio Dotel (3.91 ERA, 4 blown saves in 15 chances) was traded to the Braves for a pretty highly-touted minor league starter. So surely Torres (5.00 ERA this year, but ERA’s of 2.64, 2.76, and 3.28 the last three seasons), Marte (1.38), and Chacon (3.78) could get something of value. Maybe Chacon—whose obtaining at least year’s deadline I ranted™ and raved about ad nauseum—could bring something of value in return? With an even remotely competent GM, I’d have been downright optimistic. You trade guys at their highest value, and these three guys will never ever ever have a higher value.
So what happened? Littlefield kept all three of them. His defense?Littlefield explained that he did not feel compelled to trade pitchers because all except Chacon, who can be a free agent this offseason, have their rights owned by the team through 2009.
Yes, that’s the important thing. Not, you know, actually building for the future. He actually thinks the Pirates are like one player away from being a really good team.
"The important thing is that people are interested in our players," Littlefield said.
That player? Matt Morris, apparently. Here’s what Jayson Stark had to say:The Giants' brass was sitting around its suite Tuesday morning, bemoaning the fact that it had no decent deals cooking whatsoever. And then, out of the blue, it happened. The Pirates called. And wanted Matt Morris. His 7.94 ERA since mid-June? Not a problem. That $9.5 million he's owed next year (not counting his $1 million 2009 buyout)? Not a problem. And so they swooped in and finished off a deal for Morris minutes before the deadline -- for a legit prospect (Rajai Davis), a second prospect to be chosen from an agreed-upon list and absolutely zero money changing hands. Well, it didn't take long. For the next two hours, after people around baseball learned of this deal, they couldn't stop calling, e-mailing and texting reactions that could probably be summed up with three succinct words: WHAT THE BX!GRZFDQ!!!!! Don't get us wrong here. We love Matt Morris. Terrific guy. Has had a wonderful career. Should be a fine mentor to those young Pirates starters. But the Giants were just about begging teams to take Morris and offering to chomp big chunks of his money if they had to. Then this team going nowhere dropped out of the sky and took the man and the money. What a country. "That move," said one incredulous front-office man, "is so far out of left field, it's in the Monongahela."
Maybe Littlefield should be commended for actually getting the Pirates some attention from Stark. I doubt he’s had a word to say about this pitiful franchise since last year’s trading deadline, when Littlefield was universally mocked for asking for too hilariously much in return for his craptastic players. On even a mediocre team, this wouldn’t be a terrible deal—Rajai Davis is not a “legit prospect”. He’s 27, and though he’s fast, he has no idea how to run bases, and he’s not particularly amazing in the field. Morris is better at pitching—even way past his prime—than Davis is at playing outfield, and besides...the Pirates aren’t players on the free agent market because players don’t want to play for them. If you trade for a guy and MAKE him come to Pittsburgh, hey...maybe that’s just the way you have to do things. However...a) Matt Morris has sucked for most of the last two years and is still owed over $16 million.
The only reason this trade isn’t one of Littlefield’s worst moves ever is that he’s Dave Littlefield. It’s hard to one up yourself when you’ve...
b) Matt Morris is now the highest-paid player in franchise history. That’s horrid on so many different levels.
c) Littlefield outbid himself for Morris.
d) Littlefield passed on possibly the most talented guy in this year’s draft because his agent is Scott Boras, and he’d be too expensive to sign. But throwing $16 million at the feet of an over-the-hill pitcher, six years past his prime, is somehow okay.1) Traded Aramis Ramirez for pennies on the dollar.
Yeah, somehow this move doesn’t even make its way into Littlefield’s Top 5 (nor did his spending $17.5 million on Joe Randa, Jeromy Burnitz, and Sean Casey in 2006). So why am I even angry??
2) Traded Chris Young (currently 9-3 with a 1.82 ERA, an all-star with the Padres) for reliever Matt Herges...who was released a couple months later.
3) Traded Leo Nunez (currently 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA in two starts for the Royals...oh, and he’s only 23 years old) for Benito Santiago...who was released a couple months later.
4) Lost 5 prospects in the 2003 Rule 5 Draft because you had to leave room on the 40-man roster for the likes of Raul Mondesi.
5) Passed on a Kip-Wells-for-Ryan-Howard deal a couple years ago because “Howard strikes out too much.” In case you didn’t notice, Ryan Howard’s hit 87 HR’s in the last two seasons, while Wells has gone 6-18 with the Pirates, Rangers, and Cardinals.
That brings us back to Bob Smizik. When I’m agreeing with 100% of the words coming out of Smizik’s mouth (or typewriter), something’s seriously wrong. But I was almost tempted to paste his entire column.By making this trade, general manager Dave Littlefield has accomplished the seemingly impossible. He made the Pirates a buyer instead of a seller at the trading deadline. Perhaps, Littlefield missed the part where the Pirates lost 13 of their first 15 after the All-Star Game and went from a team with a glimmer of hope to one careening toward another 90-loss season.
I agree with everything but the last sentence. If ownership approved the trade, then what makes anybody think that they don’t totally support what Littlefield is doing here? My initial thought on seeing this trade was, “Good...that should be the final nail in Littlefield’s coffin.” But now I’m not so sure.
It's a move that reeks of desperation and of Littlefield, who has yet to produce a winning season in six years, making a final attempt to keep his job, which is widely believed to be in jeopardy.
What's particularly scary is that in acquiring such a contract, Littlefield clearly had to get permission from owner Bob Nutting and that such permission was forthcoming.
It again brings into question, as have so many other moves in the past, whether anyone in the Pirates' organization knows what they're doing.
For example: The deal comes two days after Leo Nunez made a second consecutive strong start for the Kansas City Royals. In 10 innings, in his first two major-league starts, Nunez has allowed one earned run.
Nunez is a prime example of the player personnel decisions of the Littlefield era. In December of 2004, the Pirates traded Nunez to Kansas City, although he was registering upwards of 95 mph on the radar gun while pitching in the low minors. They dealt him for Benito Santiago, a veteran catcher who was so far past his prime that the Pirates released him May 8. He never played for another major-league team.
In other words, the Pirates were dead wrong in their evaluation of Santiago and dead wrong in their evaluation of Nunez.
In an organization still trying to develop pitchers who are 26 and 27 years old, like Bryan Bullington and Van Benschoten, Nunez is only 23.
Morris will be 33 in eight days, and the Pirates see him as a veteran presence to stabilize an otherwise young rotation. In theory, that sounds great. In practice, particularly when the veteran is having trouble getting batters out, it doesn't necessarily work.
In 2005, the Pirates added Mark Redman, a veteran starter, to the rotation and paid him $4.5 million. That was the same year the career of Oliver Perez began a downward plunge that did not stop until he left the organization. This isn't to suggest Redman was responsible for the decline of Perez. It is only to show veteran presence is vastly overrated.
Even if Morris reverses this recent career decline, the wisdom of such a trade must come into question. His salary next season will be $9.5 million, but it could go slightly higher as it did this season. That would represent about 20 percent of the team's payroll. It is not considered a wise policy to pay that high a percentage of the payroll to one player, regardless of the size of the payroll.
But the 2008 payroll does not figure to be a problem Littlefield will have to face.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™
What a Rant™-worthy week we just had. I love it when things come together.
Pirates Trade for Cesar Izturis!
As the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Stats Geek noted today, there aren’t many middle infielders worse offensively than the tandem of Jack Wilson and Jose Castillo, but the Pirates found one of them. And being that he was a favorite of manager Jim Tracy because of his “versatility” (meaning he’s equally mediocre at a bunch of different positions), there’s a chance the Pirates might keep him beyond this year.
There’s also a chance that, because Tracy loves him so much, the “player to be named later” is actually one of the Pirates’ 3-4 actual prospects. Woohoo.
Jack Wilson for Troy Glaus!
Rather, Pirates “inquire” about Jack Wilson for Troy Glaus. Blue Jays roll eyes, laugh heartily, and hang up the phone.
Here’s the typical Dave Littlefield trade negotiation: 1) Littlefield asks for something unbelievably ridiculous (like Wilson for Glaus, or Kris Benson for David Wright a few years ago), 2) offended, the GM on the other end of the phone scoffs and offers insultingly little, 3) negotiations stagnate, 4) Littlefield caves before deadline, accepting 50¢ on the dollar (i.e. a low-ceiling AA relief pitcher) after aiming for $50.
Former #1 John Van Benschoten uncoached!
"Coming up through the system and being the No. 1 pick and no one really stepping up because no one wants to mess you up," said Van Benschoten, who was the team's first-round selection in the 2001 First-Year Player Draft. "They have a big organization and they need to take care of other people, so I think being almost left alone has just come to a head this year with a crash course here."
Others have a “big organization” and manage not to “mess up” every #1 pick. Just saying.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, Van Benschoten, the Pirates’ #1 pick in 2001, is now 27 with a career record of 1-7 and career ERA of 7.49. Just thought I’d throw that out there.
1-8 since the break!
And oh by the way, the Pirates have won once since the All-Star Break and are 0.5 games out of last place in the worst division in baseball. They’re on pace for 93 losses. Average wins the six years before Littlefield: 71.7. Average record the six years since Littlefield’s hire (if they do indeed live up to their 69-93 pace): 70.3.
Honestly, there’s a glimmer of hope here since Pittsburgh is looking for a new CEO, someone who is supposedly an actual, honest-to-God baseball man. If that’s the case, there might actually be a 10% chance for accountability, i.e. Littlefield (and Jim Tracy, for that matter) looking for a new job next year. Cross your fingers.
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™ - Video Edition
No words required. I'm going to go sob in the shower now. Via Bucs Dugout.
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
If you're wondering about the Tuesday Pirates Rant™...
...and I'm sure you are...
I'm trying something new as a sports fan. As long as I've been a Pirates fan, I've also been a Portland Trail Blazers fan. Over the last 15-20 years, they've tortured me exactly as Pittsburgh has. Recently, they've stunk just as badly, only they stunk with criminals and unlikeable players. But they've turned over a new leaf; they're doing things the right way, and their luck has turned. They have the brightest future of any team in the NBA, and since I never jumped off the bandwagon, I have a pretty good seat.
With this change in luck, I'm attempting to change my outlook as a sports fan. In other words, I'm attempting optimism. It's a sparkling, new concept for me, and I don't really know what I'm doing, but...Portland has a "gotta wear shades"-level bright future, Mizzou football is in the Top 25 in many preseason magazines...
...and I really don't have the energy to rant about a hopeless franchise like Pittsburgh. I still read the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette every morning and visit my favorite Bucs blogs, but it's just too depressing. The GM is a) the worst in the majors, and b) under no pressure whatsoever of losing his job, and the owners say they're "as frustrated as anybody" with the losing, and they say it with the same genuineness as Bushnev saying he cares about the plight of the American middle class--you know, that "I care, just not enough to do anything about it" level of genuineness.
And I'm telling you, it's getting harder and harder to care enough for a heartfelt Rant™. I mean, I care enough to still pay attention after 14+ years of losing, just not enough to get worked up about it. I'm beaten down...and when another franchise of mine is actually doing things the right way, well...it gets even harder to get worked up.
But because I know how much you, the loyal GN reader, lives and dies with what I think about the Pirates (uh huh), here are some quick bullets...all you need to know currently about the Pirates:
And the best part about the whole thing is...THE PIRATES HAVE NO PRESENCE IN THE FRICKIN' DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PRODUCES MORE PROSPECTS (cheaper ones, too) THAN THE UNITED STATES, AND THE PIRATES HAVE DECIDED THEY DON'T NEED A DISCOUNTED BASEBALL ACADEMY THERE. There's stupid, there's really stupid, and there's UNBELIEVABLY, UNFORGIVEABLY STUPID. Again, these guys have absolutely no idea how to run a baseball franchise, and they're under no pressure whatsoever to figure it out at the moment. Any wonder why the Portland Trailblazers are commanding more and more of my attention? Unbelievable.
See, I don't even enjoy ranting about this team anymore. I embraced the frustration and had fun with it last year. Now it just makes me angry.I don't understand this; I just can't process it. Not only did only about 1,000 of the 22,000 or so in attendance walk out, but many people actually booed. Who the hell are these people? They can't all be members of the Nutting family. Maybe they didn't understand what the protest was for, but it was well covered in the local media, so that seems unlikely. As far as I can tell, the protesters only wanted to send a message that they were unhappy with all the losing and that they held the ownership responsible. I just don't see how anyone but a Nutting sycophant, a hopeless ignoramus or a complete moron could disagree with that message.
That's a better rant than I'm capable of at the moment...though you can see that everybody's feeling hopeless nowadays. Go Blazers!
It therefore appears to me that there is a huge population - a majority, perhaps - of PNC attendees who either are so reactionary that they hate protests of any kind, or are happy to have the Pirates playing Class AAA baseball as long as major-league teams show up to play them and bobbleheads of past stars are distributed at the gates. Or maybe they honestly believe that the owners are honestly doing their best to turn things around, in which case they're just deluded beyond repair. Of course I knew that there were a lot of people like this, but I had no idea how many. It makes me very sad to be a Pirates fan and it makes me question what I'm doing here. If the people of Pittsburgh are content with 67 wins a year, then who am I to write angrily about every busted draft pick or stupid transaction? I mean, who cares, right?
What a stupid, pathetic scene this was. 1,000 people showing some guts and protesting, and 21,000 more paying $20 or so to collect a bobblehead and say, "Thank you, sir, can I have another?"
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™ - Okay, a small one…
I just didn’t have the motivation to do a rant this morning, but that was before I saw this:
The Pirates have improved at the basics since last season, general manager Dave Littlefield said, but there remains work to do.Right...when you lose games because your catcher misses every ball on a play at the plate, or because you miss the cutoff man, or because your cutoff man is in the wrong spot, or because you don’t score from second on a double...those are the things that get highlighted. Crazy, isn’t it? It’s amazing how the press will bring those things up when you’re losing.
"I think it's better," he said yesterday of the team's fundamental play, which has been a central -- and largely negative -- issue of late. "When I look at our bunting, frankly, it's a lot better. And there are other areas. But, when you go through a period of losing a few in a row and some games get away, those are the things that get highlighted."
But hey...they sure can bunt though! A perfect skill to have when you can’t get on base. And never mind that the team can’t score, can’t play defense, has two good starting pitchers, has one good reliever, has a revolving door of craptastic relievers filtering between AAA and Pittsburgh...bunting, which is about #63 on the “Desired Skills” list, is totally taken care of. Woohoo.
He really is veering into Bushnev/Baghdad Bob territory now...up is down, black is white, and everything is going just swimmingly.
TUESDAY PIRATES RANT™!!
I didn't post a Rant™ last week because I was driving to Oklahoma and trying to avoid getting hit by lightning. This week I was getting ready to prepare a fresh Rant™ but just didn't have the energy. So instead I'll just post this from Pat of Where's Van Slyke, who writes a lot more about this sorry team than I do:
No podcast this week because, well, it's just not worth it. I'd just be rehashing things I've already said and I don't really have any urge to do that. Here's the thing; the Pirates are a bad baseball team. Very bad, in fact. Their lineup is bad, their rotation is bad beyond Gorzelanny and Snell, and their bullpen is awful. Their minor league system is bereft of talent besides Walker and McCutchen. Things are so bad down there that we view Brian Bixler as a major talent. The front office lacks any kind of vision whatsoever. They drafted a relief pitcher with the fourth pick in the draft. It's just very hard for me to put any sort of brainpower into the Pirates when things seem so cut and dried right now.Pretty much says it all. Please fire Dave Littlefield so I can go back to caring and ranting. Pretty please.
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™ - I’m Back, Baby!
After weeks of half-assed, “I know they suck, but I don’t want to complain too much because they’re not actually doing that badly since the division sucks so much” Rants™, I finally have some fantastic Rant™ material! Hooray! Let’s get started!
Good
This week? Nothing.
Bad
The MLB Amateur Draft was last week. The Pirates, with their usual spot in the Top 5, swore in the weeks leading up to the draft that money and “signability” were not obstacles—that the Pirates would select the best player available. It was determined that the two best players for the Pirates would be high school 3B Josh Vitters (the new David Wright!) or Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters. One of those two would likely be available to the Pirates, but probably not both.
At the very least, we could assume that David Littlefield, being the General Manager of a Major League Baseball team, would not be stupid enough to draft another college pitcher in the first round, being that a) their offense stinks, b) they officially have two good-hitting prospects in their entire minor league system, and c) their #1 picks in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2006 were all college pitchers who have, since their selection, needed reconstructive arm surgery.
Before the draft started on Thursday, a poster named Vlad made this comment at Bucs Dugout (with the subject line of “Blah”):They aren't going to take the best available player (Wieters), and they aren't going to take the best non-Boras guy [i.e. player not represented by uber-agent Scott Boras] (Heyward), either.
Pishaw, I said. Vlad is surely just some cynical internet fan who is assuming the worst. The Pirates said money is not an option! They will select the best player available!
It's really hard to care about this team, when they aren't even going to put forth a modicum of effort.
I've been operating under the assumption all along that they're going to take [Clemson pitcher Dan] Moskos, since he's the best combination of low ceiling and high risk out of all the top picks. We'll see whether I'm right.
(Okay, I didn’t really say or think that. I feared the worst just like everybody else.)
Well...Josh Vitters was selected by the Cubs at #3, leaving Matt Wieters on the table for the Pirates, who selected...Dan Moskos of Clemson, a low-ceiling, left-handed RELIEF PITCHER, who was ranked the #9 PITCHER in the draft by MinorLeagueBall.com. Rare is an organization who lives down to your most cynical expectations on a regular basis. You can’t even make a sarcastic joke about something because it might come true. Granted, they hadn’t lived this far down to expectations since last year’s epic trade deadline display, but...low ceiling and high risk? Sounds like the 4th-best player in the draft to me! Even Littlefield’s justification, “We got the guy we want, really,” sounds Baghdad Bob-esque.
Oh, and then Moskos pitched on ESPN the next day in a Super Regional game against Mississippi State...and got shelled (5 1/3 innings, 6 runs).
And the worst part was, I was almost rooting for it to happen. SOMETHING has to get Littlefield fired, right? No? How about the fact that the Pirates are now 11 games under .500 in the worst division in baseball? No? His job is still safe? How? And better yet, how can I get a job under the Nutting/McClatchy ownership? You almost literally have to kill somebody to get fired. No amount of failure will do the trick.
As for the team that is actually currently taking the field...
* The Pirates, for the second time in two tries, got swept at Yankee Stadium this weekend. Awesome.
* Jack Wilson has gone from elite defender to defensive liability in the last couple of years. That, or he’s just gotten a big case of Pirateitis, which overtakes everybody who wears the Pirates jersey for too many years. His play in the field was so bad on Saturday that even Jim Tracy, who rarely actually holds players accountable for poor play or effort, benched Wilson for Sunday’s game.
* Catcher Ronnie Paulino was ALSO benched for lazy play over the weekend. It’s contagious.
* The bullpen took a massive hit this weekend when Salomon Torres, who despite his horribly up-and-down play is still by far the Pirates’ 2nd-best reliever, got put on the DL with arm troubles. Nothing serious, but he’ll still miss a few weeks.
* With new closer Matt Capps sitting out four upcoming games due to a suspension and Torres on the DL, the likely new closer is Jonah Bayliss, current owner of a 7.15 ERA.
Actually, let’s just wrap this up...
* The entire team can’t hit.
* The entire team can’t field.
* The entire team can’t run bases correctly.
The end.
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™
The Rant™ is back after a Memorial Day-induced “I didn’t realize it was Tuesday until Tuesday was over” absence! Try to contain your excitement.
So the Pirates are now 24-33 with roughly two pitchers doing much of anything. However, they’re 1.5 games out of 2nd place in the NL “Comedy Central” and only 7.5 games out of 1st. If they were in the NL East, they’d be a half-game from last and 12 games out of 1st. NL West? They’d be in a distant last place (at least 3 games from everybody else) and a solid 10 games back. But no...they get to pretend like they have something play for for another couple of...well, maybe weeks, maybe months, depending on how the Brewers and Cardinals play.
Things are so screwy in the NL Central that the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Dejan Kovacevic, by all means a competent and sane beat writer, wrote this article last week—about whether the Pirates will be sellers or buyers at the trading deadline—with a completely straight face. Never mind that the Pirates went 11-18 in May and have started June a crisp 1-3...or that they’ve averaged just 2.8 runs per game since scoring 14 against the Reds on May 27...or that their bullpen has imploded since carrying the team the first few weeks of the season...they’re contenders, baby!! Just listen to the players!Ask the Pirates' players, naturally, and they would welcome a boost to the roster.
This is precisely what I was scared of at the beginning of the season. This is a bad team. Possibly one of the worst the Pirates have had in a while. But because the teams around them are just as bad, they might do something stupid in another couple of months, like trade one of the three prospects in their system that anybody would actually want for somebody none of the real contenders (teams with both higher payrolls and actual minor league prospects) thought enough to make an offer for.
"I was just talking to Freddy Sanchez the other day about that," shortstop Jack Wilson said. "Who can we go out and get? Who's available?"
"I think we've got a good chance in this division," starter Ian Snell said. "The window's there. It's just a matter of whether or not we want to take advantage of it. I know I want it. But you've got to add pieces to win."
I was also scared of this scenario because I knew it would look like I was rooting against my own team in the Rant™. I don’t want to sound too cynical here. It would be really fun to watch the Pirates in the playoffs...but I just know this organization (i.e. GM and ownership) too well. If they make a trade at the Deadline, it will be three steps beyond desperate. Some GM will take advantage of Dave Littlefield, and any trade he could pull off wouldn’t even remotely help the organization. And beyond that, in the rare possibility that the Pirates win the division (probably with like 77 wins or something), ownership would do something horribly stupid like sign Littlefield to a 10-year extension. Plus, there’s absolutely no chance that they would actually win a series in the playoffs. This isn’t like last year’s Cardinals, who crept into the playoffs with 83 wins and won the World Series. The Cardinals were injured and bored most of the year, but everybody knew they might have a run in them. Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, a horrid offense, a bad defense, and a broken down bullpen, would not be able to make a Cardinals-esque run. They just wouldn’t. I’m as eternally optimistic as they come, but...come on. When/if the Pirates make the playoffs in my lifetime, I want them to actually be a good team that has a chance to win...I don’t want them to have made it because the other five teams in their division were terrible...er, even more terrible than they were.
Then again, I don’t think the Brewers are going to sink too much further, and between them and either the Astros or Cardinals (or maybe the Cubs, but probably not), the NL Central will be won with between 84-88 wins...not 77. And since the Pirates are currently on pace for 68 wins...yeah...
Good
* After a couple of rough starts, Ian Snell pitched wonderfully again in his last start. He is now 5-4 with a 2.93 ERA. His stablemate, Tom Gorzelanny, is cruising along at 6-3 / 2.52 as well. Unfortunately, two-man rotations haven’t existed since about the 1880s.
* Jason Bay has caught fire, and his numbers are once again very Jason Bay-like—.306 BA, .376 OBP, .530 SLG, 10 HR, 43 RBI. He’s on pace for 122 RBI...not only would that be a career high, but that would also account for about 2/3 of the Pirates’ runs on the season. Just kidding. Sort of.
* It should be noted that a couple other players have done pretty well lately. Adam LaRoche has raised his average to .223, which is relatively impressive considering where it was a few weeks ago. Also, Xavier Nady—traded to the Pirates for Oliver Perez and Roberto Hernandez last trading deadline—is putting up his typical numbers—.280 BA, 9 HR, 31 RBI. It ain’t great, but for the Pirates it kinda is.
Bad
* It should also be noted that Oliver Perez is now 6-4 with a 2.80 ERA for the Mets right now. He’s on pace for almost 200 K’s and looking more and more like the 2004 version of Perez that the Pirates misplaced for two years before trading him for Nady. Another awesome trade for Dave Littlefield. But hey...using hindsight isn’t fair...it’s not like anybody thought that was an awful trade at the time...oh wait...
* Starters Zach Duke and Paul Maholm continue to take one step forward and nine steps back. Duke is 2-6 with a 5.73 ERA, while Maholm is 2-8 with a 5.34 ERA.
* After a pretty decent month of May, Salomon Torres reverted to his April form by blowing a save on Thursday (ruining a strangely dominant start by Shawn Chacon), getting demoted back to his setup man role, then blowing a lead from that role on Sunday. The bullpen that carried the team through the first few weeks of the season, when the offense had no punch, has shown massive signs of strain lately...and after a couple of weeks in which Pirate bats actually connected with the occasional ball, the offense has disappeared again in the last week or so. That probably isn’t a very good combination.
* Did I mention that the Pirates are the worst baserunners in the league? Not only have they been thrown out between third and home THIRTEEN TIMES this season, but this week they also managed not to score on back-to-back doubles in back-to-back games. Think about that. Back-to-back doubles result in 0 runs. In back-to-back games.
* Think about that some more. That’s not only inept, that’s historically inept. But they’re contenders! Honest!
What a cynic I've become...
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™
This season just keeps getting weirder. The pitching is falling apart--to the point where Shawn Chacon being added to the rotation both upgrades the rotation and severely hurts the bullpen--just as the offense is figuring things out, and the Pirates just finished a 4-6 homestand against Milwaukee, Florida, and Arizona. However, the NL Central is so unbelievably terrible that this article found its way to print this morning:
Imagine this call over the PNC Park loudspeaker in early October:Well...it IS laughable--if the Brewers do indeed fade, it will be the Cubs or Astros who catch them--but the division is so bad that somebody who gets paid a lot more money than I do, thought this was credible. The Pirates' offense, defense, and pitching have rarely been worse, it seems, but .500 has never been more attainable. Forgive me if I don't get excited.
Ladies and gentleman, your 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates ... the National League's Central Division champions!
Ridiculous?
Laughable?
The punch line to some cruel, go-ahead-and-rub-it-in joke?
Yeah, probably. Truth is, if the Pirates keep performing as erratically as they have in the season's opening quarter, there is no chance.
At the same time ...
"We have 41/2 months of baseball left to play and, obviously, we're sitting in a division right now where clubs are not playing all that well," manager Jim Tracy said. "We're not in a division where a club is pulling away."
Good
* Ryan Doumit is STILL tearing the cover off the ball, even though he still doesn't really have a position. Through 76 at-bats, Doumit is batting .368, with a .435 on-base %, and .618 slugging %.
* Adam LaRoche has slowly begun to figure things out. Granted, he's still a smidge below the Mendoza line (.199), but his May numbers (.293 / .400 / .448) are much closer to what was expected of him all along.
* Freddy Sanchez' batting average is up to .276, which is terrible considering he's the defending NL batting champ, but it's great considering he was recently in the .220s.
* Ian Snell (4-2, 2.76 ERA) is still doing well, as is Tom Gorzelanny (5-2, 2.43 ERA).
* Closer Salomon Torres hasn't given up a run in his last 8 appearances.
Bad
* After Snell and Gorzelanny, the rotation has been putrid. Zach Duke (1-4, 5.19 ERA), Paul Maholm (2-6, 5.82), and Tony Armas Jr. (0-3, 8.46 ERA) have been rotten. Duke has improved recently, but Maholm has backslid, and Armas was bad enough that he lost his rotation spot to Chacon.
* You know how I complimented CF Chris Duffy for keeping his on-base % over .333? Yeah, it's now at .283 (with a .220 batting average). Not exactly what you're looking for in a leadoff hitter. But if you take him out of the lineup, your defense goes from bad to horrible. Have I mentioned how much this organization's depth sucks lately? Oh, and the guy the Pirates hoped would succeed Duffy if Duffy wasn't getting the job done? You know...Pirates' #1 prospect Andrew McCutchen? Batting .181, with a .245 on-base %. In AA Altoona. Fantastic.
* Jim Tracy is still a terrible manager:
It seemed a questionable choice, to be generous.And when Tracy was asked why he made the decision, he basically threw Marte (too wild) and Capps (sucked that night anyway) under the bus. Just like last year, Tracy leaps to take credit for anything that bounces their way, but when his decisions are questioned, he blames the first person who pops into his head. Strong leadership.
Arizona was slithering back into the game, down four runs in the seventh inning, and bases were loaded. A big hit was needed, and the Diamondbacks' pinch-hitter for light-hitting Robby Hammock surely would be switch-hitting slugger Tony Clark, owner of 232 career home runs and extraordinary power.
And Pirates manager Jim Tracy's signal to the bullpen was to summon ...
Marty McLeary?
The same Marty McLeary who had been hit hard in every outing since his recall from Class AAA Indianapolis two weeks ago?
The same Marty McLeary who had been used only in mopup duty?
Right.
Boom!
Clark's grand slam high into the center-field seats brought a tie that stunned and silenced the crowd of 30,677 at PNC Park, and Arizona's two-run eighth off Matt Capps would cap an astounding 9-8 victory for the Diamondbacks last night.
Tracy had all his relievers available except John Grabow, who had created the mess that inning, and Shawn Chacon, who had pitched five innings Thursday. He could have brought in Damaso Marte, Jonah Bayliss or Matt Capps, those he usually uses with the game on the line.
Or even Salomon Torres. Some managers in recent years have taken to calling on their closers in the game's most critical situations rather than just the ninth inning.
Instead, Tracy chose McLeary, whose first three appearances with the Pirates resulted in eight hits -- three of them home runs -- and a 7.36 ERA.
Blog
Pat from WHYGAVS, on the state of the NL Central:
Honestly, I'm a bit tired of the same old "The NL Central sucks" stuff. The truth is that while the division is not great, I think there are two tiers in the division that will emerge pretty clearly this year. The Brewers and Cubs and everyone else. The division was no good last year, but no more than three teams had any realistic shot at winning the thing and it was probably down to only the Astros and Cards. Just because no team is the Mets in the division doesn't mean the Pirates have a chance.Rowdy from Honest Wagner on Tony Armas:
And so we get two of the rejects in the division this year facing off tonight at 8 PM in St. Louis (the thread is going up a bit early because I'm going to a Greensboro Grasshoppers game tonight). The Pirates are a bit ahead in the standings, but the Cardinals have played much worse, scoring fewer runs than the Pirates and allowing more. Still, they're the Cardinals and we're the Pirates. It's hard to get that delineation out of my head at the moment.
The team was stubborn with Armas. When you make shitty personnel decisions, they have a ripple effect. If the team wants to win games, they have to win games now. Not later. No amount of losing today will increase the winning later. If they want to win games now, they have to play the most competent players. This means scrapping the "plan" when necessary. Armas, a $3M part of the offseason plan, was failing us well before this week. He had no business getting that last start.Have I mentioned this team still has a chance to win 80 games? So confusing. And yet, I find myself caring about this season less than most. Until they fire their GM and prove that they actually want to field a good team, I have the feeling that will continue.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™
Yeah, no rant tonight. I have no idea what to say. This is probably the worst Pirate team in at least five years, yet they have their best chance of reaching .500 since Andy Van Slyke roamed centerfield. I don't get it.
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™
A quick one today.
Good
* Ryan Doumit is still hitting the ball. Recently called up from AAA, he's gotten 15 hits in 34 at-bats, good for a .441 batting average, .500 on-base %, and .765 slugging %. Good stuff.
* Adam LaRoche is hitting over .300 so far in May! Granted, they're basically all singles, but hey...gotta start somewhere.
* Ian Snell (2-2, 2.31 ERA) and Tom Gorzelanny (4-1, 2.97) are still looking good, though Snell imploded in his last start against the Cubs.
* That's it.
Bad
* The offense is beyond wretched. The Pirates haven't had a winning record in almost 15 years, but never in that time had they made it to the second week of May without scoring more than 7 runs in a game. Not one offensive explosion in 30 games.
* Such a long period of ineptitude is wearing down the pitching staff. The bullpen, a strength over the first few weeks, is imploding. A couple weeks ago, I mentioned how great Matt Capps and Jonah Bayliss were doing. Well, Capps has gone from a 0.87 ERA to a 2.25. Bayliss? From 2.24 to 7.36. But guys under this much stress this early, and they'll start to falter.
* Have I mentioned that the Pirates are 1-5 so far in May, having been outscored 39-18 in that time. They have fallen to 13-17 overall (7-17 against teams not named the Astros), and the scary part is that they've overachieved--they're 5-2 in 1-run games. They're second-worst in the terrible NL Central in both runs scored and runs allowed. The only good news is, the Cardinals are actually worse in both categories.
* The Brewers, who have been down almost as long as Pittsburgh, has actually built a real organization with real prospects and real executives and real owners, and they're 22-10 right now, best record in the majors. Just to rub it in a bit.
Blog
Pat from Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke talks about AAA prospect Bryan Bullington, who is undefeated with a miniscule ERA in Indianapolis. Sounds like a great pitcher? Not so much.Yes, his 5-0 record is impressive, but record is virtually meaningless when trying to figure out how good a pitcher is (remember Roger Clemens in 2005... he probably had one of the best seasons in modern history and only finished 13-8). His ERA is 0.96 and his WHIP is 1.14. Again, both are impressive, but again we've got a small sample size and those numbers don't tell the hole story. In 37 and 2/3 innings, Bullington only has 19 strikeouts and 15 walks. That isn't going to fly in the bigs, plain and simple. Zach Duke's biggest problem has always been not enough strikeouts. This is at least partially because our defense sucks. He pitches the worst when he walks a ton of batters. Bullington isn't striking anyone out and is walking a lot of people, in AAA. He's getting lucky. THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES! THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES!
If you can't strike people out, you can only do as well as your defense will allow. Pirates' defense? Not so hot.
Also, Charlie at Bucs Dugout looks at the myth that college pitchers are the safest bet in the MLB draft.
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™
Another quick Rant™ for you today. Why quick? Because I honestly have no idea what to say right now. Despite having just about the worst offense imagineable, and despite having a closer with three blown saves and a 6.75 ERA, the Pirates are 12-12 through the first month of the season. What does this mean? I have no idea. So on we go...
Good
* Ryan Doumit, previously known as the Pirates’ “catcher of the future” before getting hurt and losing his job to Ronnie Paulino, who doesn’t hit for power and allows passed balls to flow like water but “handles the pitchers well,” was finally called up from AAA (where he was batting about .425) last week and proceeded to give the Pirates their best offensive boost of the season. Through just 17 at-bats with the Buccos, Doumit has a .412 average, a .487 on-base %, 1 HR, 4 RBI’s, 3 doubles, and a .765 slugging %. He’ll come back down to earth at some point, but his quick contribution is something Pittsburgh has desperately needed.
* Chris Duffy has good weeks and bad weeks, but my goal for him was a .333 on-base %, so I can’t complain about his .350 OBP, 5 SB’s, and 12 runs.
* Ian Snell is just about the best starting pitcher in the NL. Through five outstandings starts (in which he’s earned just two wins thanks to the offense), he has a 1.58 ERA and 28 K’s in 34 innings of work. He has allowed just 35 baserunners. Eventually he’ll have a bad start, but I’m starting to think he won’t have too many of them. Then again, with everything I say in the Rant™, the exact opposite proceeds to happen, so...uhh...Ian Snell Sucks.
* Elsewhere in the rotation, Tom Gorzelanny got roughed up by the Reds over the weekend, but I won’t complain about a 3-1 record, 3.06 ERA, and 21-8 K-BB ratio. And Zach Duke and Paul Maholm responded to my negative words in last week’s Rant™ by pitching three strong starts between the two of them.
* Simply put, even with Torres’ horrid start, the bullpen has been as good as it possibly could be. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Stats Geek had a great write-up about it recently. The Pirates’ bad overall offense has put the bullpen in more pressure situations than any other team in baseball, and guys like Matt Capps and Jonah Bayliss are by far the primary reason why the Pirates are at .500 right now.
* With the game tied at 2 in the 8th inning last night, Jason Bay hit his second game-winning HR of the season, as the Pirates won 3-2 over the Cubs. That's gotta go on the 'Good' list, right?
Bad
* Defending NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez is STRUG-A-LING. He has just 3 hits in his last 23 at-bats and is batting .224 overall. He has not yet shaken off the rust that accrued when he missed most of the spring with an ankle injury. With a few more reps, he should be alright, but he’s dragging things down for right now.
(And of course, in anticipation of tonight’s Rant™, Sanchez is 2-for-2 so far tonight.)
* Salomon Torres has been very unlucky so far, as errors and hits that barely squeak through the infield have decimated him. But in 12 innings, he’s struck out just 6 and walked 5. That’s not good enough for a closer.
* Adam LaRoche has hit just .150 over his last 40 at-bats. However, that’s actually RAISED his average, to a robust .133. Ouch. But this “hot” streak has moved him ahead of Pittsburgh’s pitchers in the hits department, so...yeah.
* Pittsburgh has scored 3 or less runs 13 times in 24 games this season. THIRTEEN. Thanks to Snell, Gorzy, and the heroic bullpen, the Pirates have managed a 5-8 record in those games, but...ugh. When Pittsburgh manages more than 3 runs, they’re 7-4. I say score more runs.
So...is Pittsburgh teetering on the edge of a cliff, or are they about to catch fire? The odds of the offense picking up steam seem about as high as the bullpen imploding, so I don’t really know what to expect. Looking at their run differential and the fact that they’re 9-3 in games decided by 2 or less, you think a regression is more likely. But then looking at the fact that just about every Pirate other than Doumit and Duffy are hitting below their career numbers, and their closer has been the worst closer in the league not named Mariano Rivera (and will surely improve, right? Right?), you start to think the opposite. This is, however, the Pirates, so I think you know I'm assuming the former, not the latter.
Blog
Pat from WHYGAVS, responding to a Post-Gazette Q&A regarding crap utility infielder Don Kelly:From Dejan's chat at the PG site today:
And finally, Ken from the ever-enjoyable FireJoeMorgan.com reads and reacts to a Post-Gazette article from last week about “clutch” and whether “clutch” actually exists. Read the whole thing. Here’s a taste:STricky_Kidean: Why is Don Kelly still on this team?
Holy freaking crap, this is insane. Why the hell are the Pirates worried about grooming a utilityman from within? Because of the severe Jose K blogger fallout last year? Utilityman is the one position that it's probably best to grab some old guy for $800K in March and toss at-bats too. We're grooming utilitymen now? I don't know what to say.
Dejan Kovacevic: I get the idea that the Pirates would like to groom a utilityman from within, and they feel that Kelly could be that guy for a long time. What might be the better question is why he is taking so many significant at-bats. You look at his ABs and place them against, Nate McLouth's, and they seem a little too close for comfort.There is no bigger proponent of clutch in the Pirates' clubhouse than the man in charge.
Indeed.
When his team wins, Jim Tracy invariably points to "big" hits that were delivered. When the team loses, he points to the lack of same.
If you win a baseball game, ipso facto, you have gotten some "big" hits. If you lose a baseball game, ipso facto, you have failed to get some "big" hits. This is tautology, Mr. Tracy. Tautology, I say! (I mean, even if you are up 15-5 in the seventh inning and you fall apart and lose 16-15, you could look back and say, "If we had only cashed in on that bases-loaded-nobody-out in the fourth..." You get the idea.)
Even after the Pirates were blanked on three measly hits in their home opener April 9, Tracy lamented, "We had chances."
Yes. At least 27 of them. Like in every game.
Tracy's view is reflected in how he forms his lineup, bucking the modern thinking that the highest on-base percentage players should be stacked at the top. Instead, he favors the more traditional approach of getting the runner on, moving him along and getting a "big" hit.
How's that working out for you, Jimmy?
"Isn't that what makes teams good?" Tracy said when asked about his value of clutch. "It's what separates you from the pack, your ability to take the big at-bat. You don't expect somebody to hit 1.000 with runners in scoring position, but you have to get your share of hits in those situations. Look at the upper echelon of clubs, and that's what you look for. And if we can get to that point, we've got a chance to become a pretty decent team."
Amazing. Just amazing. I don't know where to begin.
What makes teams good, offensively, is not making outs. And of course you have to "get your share of hits" in any situation. But what in the world would prevent you from putting your high OBP guys at the top of the line-up? Baseball Prospectus has proved that line-up order doesn't really matter that much, but the higher in the order you are, the more AB you get. And the higher your OBP, the fewer outs you make, so -- given those extra AB -- you will increase your chance of winning baseball games. This is not black magic, people. This is straightforward logic. Delivered in a exaggeratedly strident tones over a blog.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™
Slowly but surely, the conflict I mentioned last week is melting away. This team sucks. The guys are treading water at 7-10, which is impressive considering their offense is terrible, and three-fifths of their rotation are either terrible or in a slump. But it just isn’t going to last. I hope it does, but it won’t. At least, not unless the offense not only begins to play to its potential, but play above its potential.
Good
* As much crap as I’ve given Chris Duffy on the Rant™ in the last 12 months, I should mention that he’s playing quite well. He’s batting .292 with a .361 on-base percentage. At the beginning of the season, I decided I’d be thrilled if he reached a .333 OBP, so...color me thrilled. When he’s on base, he’s a terror. He only has four stolen bases, but 3 of those came in the last week. And he plays fantastic defense. He’s the least of Pittsburgh’s problems.
* I can’t ask for more than a .300 average and .347 OBP from Jack Wilson. Not that he’ll maintain this pace, but he’s on pace for 200 hits and 100 runs. That’s more than I expected from him, even after less than three weeks.
* Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny have been unbelievable. It’s a tragedy that Snell has only one win in four starts...but his run support has been about -2 runs a game. Here’s Snell’s line: 27 IP, 24 K, 9 BB, 18 H (just 1.0 baserunners per inning), 2.00 ERA...and 1 win. It’s a good thing he pitches well angry, because he’s had plenty of reasons to be angry with the support he’s gotten. Here’s Gorzy’s line: 2.05 ERA, 3-0 record, 26.1 IP, 17 K, 6 BB, 20 H (just 0.99 baserunners per inning).
* Despite two blown saves and an unimpressive-for-a-closer 4.00 ERA, Salomon Torres has been fine. He’s been screwed, but he’s been fine.
* Young righty relievers Matt Capps (10.1 IP, 0.87 ERA, 5 K, only 6 baserunners) and Jonah Bayliss (8 IP, 2.24 ERA, 6 K, 8 baserunners) have been outstanding. Capps was good last year (and he’s on pace for 105 appearances for the season...probably not a good thing), but Bayliss has exceeded expectations thus far. Of course, it’s still early, and one bad appearance can cause an ERA to explode.
Nice. Five happy bullets. I’m impressed with myself.
Bad
* Um, the entire offense.
* Um, the entire defense.
* Um, three-fifths of the starting rotation.
* Okay, I’ll explain. For the season, the offense has a .240 batting average (24th in the majors), a .303 on-base percentage (28th), and a .372 (23rd) slugging percentage. That’s wretched. Oh, and they’ve hit as many homeruns as Alex Rodriguez.
* As for the defense...they’ve had a relatively small number of errors (9, tied for 3rd in the majors), but they seem to all come in clutch situations. On Saturday night, Salomon Torres managed to blow a save without allowing a hit. He walked Juan Pierre, and then Ronnie Paulino took over. Paulino, who the organization thinks is a superb defender despite little evidence to back this up, allowed a passed ball, then threw the ball into centerfield trying to nail Pierre. With Pierre now on third, Paulino allowed another passed ball, and the tying run scored. Awful. Naturally, the Dodgers hit a game-winning grand slam to win it in the 10th.
* Adam “Savior” LaRoche has been beyond awful. He has 6 hits this season (SIX!!), same as Pirates pitchers. Granted, three of those hits have been HR’s, but...ugh. Needless to say, a .105 / .261 / .281 (batting avg / OBP / SLG) line wasn’t quite what anybody was expecting from him. That’s worse than Brant Brown!
* Jason Bay hasn’t really gotten going yet either, though he’s batting like Ted Williams compared to LaRoche. His numbers are starting to crawl upward, at .262 / .360 / .477. His walk percentage, as always, is quite high. This suggests that he’s not seeing too many good pitches to hit. LaRoche was supposed to fix that problem.
* Catcher Ronny Paulino, who’s already been skewered in this Rant™ for his terrible defense, will now get skewered for his .182 / .211 / .218 line. He’s making Xavier Nady (.267 / .312 / .467) look like an All-Star. And did I mention that Ryan Doumit, last year’s “catcher of the future” until he hurt his hamstring and lost his job to Paulino despite beating Paulino out at every step in the minors, is batting .420+ (and playing decent defense) at AAA right now? I didn’t?
In other words, unless Chris Duffy gets a single, steals second, and is singled in by Jack Wilson, the Pirates don’t score. The pitching’s been mediocre enough to keep them in most games, and the Pirates are undefeated when they score more than 5 runs. Problem is, they’ve only scored more than 5 runs 3 times.
* Other than Snell and Gorzy, the rotation’s been terrible. After two solid starts, Zach Duke has imploded in his last two. He’s been the anti-Snell to this point, with a 9.00 ERA. In 19 innings, he’s given up 36 baserunners (insanely high) and 3 HR’s...and he’s only struck out 5. Yuck.
* Paul Maholm, in comparison, has been quite solid. His 6.18 ERA (and 28 baserunners in 16 innings) are something Duke can strive to attain.
* Tony Armas, Jr., this year’s major free agent acquisition, has managed to get 20 people out in two starts. That’s right, he’s lasted less than 7 innings so far. In the process, he’s given up 15 hits, walked 7, and struck out only 2 on his way to an 18.89 ERA. He was cheap, but...ugh.
*
And last but not least their manager and his assistants are still morons, as illustrated by this Bucs Dugout post. They actually think getting on base doesn’t really matter in the process of scoring runs. And they’re proud of their ignorance. I’ve come to admit that Tracy is a good “mindset” manager, and it seems like his guys try hard at all times. But a) most of them suck, b) Tracy and his coaches don’t know how to maximize what talent they do have, and c) Tracy’s decision-making continually puts the Pirates in an even worse situation. It’s pretty simple—you want the guys who get on base more to get more chances to get on base. How hard is that to understand?
Actually, I’ll stop there. I’ve had this rant before.
As the Post-Gazette’s Stats Geek told me this morning, the upcoming 9-game homestand (against the Astros, Reds, and Cubs) will tell what kind of season the Pirates are going to have. Eventually LaRoche will start to hit (surely), and eventually the players who are doing terrible will “return to competence”, as the Stats Geek says, and that will help. Despite the fact that the Buccos just aren’t very good, they still play in a bad division, and they can still strive for a respectable record because of that. However, there are still no prospects in the minors to replace struggling players, and there is still no long-term hope.
I just thought I’d mention that since, you know, it would feel like an empty Rant™ without it.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™
Great. Now I’m conflicted again. I both a) desperately want the Pirates to win, and b) desperately want the Pirates to fire GM Dave Littlefield. Well, if (a) happens, (b) won’t happen for another 5 years or so, so therefore (a) would be a bad thing. Only...I can never root against (a) to happen. Well...after last week, I was a little relieved. A 3-0 start was followed by a 1-6 stretch that included the worst offense anybody’s seen on a baseball diamond. The Pirates weren’t winning, which sucked, but we were back on track in showing Littlefield the door. And then the Bucs swept a 2-game series in St. Louis to move back to .500. Who knows what to think at this point...
Being in mid-Missouri, the only times I get to watch the Buccos are when they’re playing the Cubs on WGN, the Braves on TBS, or (mostly) the Cards on Fox Sports MW. Which stinks because, well, they almost always lose to the Cards. Last week, however, they got creative with it. Bringing a 4-2 record into their first home series of the year, they got swept by a Cards team that was a) without Chris Carpenter, and b) getting absolutely nothing from Albert Pujols.
After losing their home opener 3-0 (getting literally no run support for Ian Snell), the Bucs exploded for 2 runs the next night, taking a 2-0 lead into the 9th (Tom Gorzelanny pitched 7 shutout innings). Salomon Torres wasted little time in blowing his first save of the year, giving up a single to David Eckstein and walking Chris Duncan. Albert Pujols flew out to left, but Jason Bay stupidly threw to 3rd base, allowing Duncan to tag to 2nd. So when Scott Spezio singled to right, two runs scored instead of one. The Pirates treaded water for a couple innings before allowing John “Why in the world am I on the roster when the Pirates have a bunch of real, live arms in AAA?” Wasdin to pitch the 12th. Wasdin wasted no time in allowing the winning run to score in the form of painfully slow Gary Bennett tagging from 3rd on a short fly to left. Wasdin was assisted in losing by Bay’s horrifically weak arm and catcher Ronny Paulino’s bobbling of an easy tag. All in all, it was a great night. And it ended Pittsburgh’s 8 days over .500.
Needless to say, there was no surprise when, the next afternoon, Torres entered a 2-2 game in the 9th and quickly gave up the game-winning run, completing the sweep. The Pirates went up against Braden Looper, Randy Keisler, and Adam Wainwright, and made them look like Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz. They were swept despite giving up 9 runs in 3 games. Good times.
The Pirates then moved to 0-4 at home (4-6 overall) with a horrible outing against San Francisco, allowing 7 runs in the first two innings and letting Russ “Worst Starter in the NL” Ortiz to channel Juan Marichal for 8 innings and eventually losing, 8-5.
Did I mention the Pirates’ offense is worse than it’s ever been?
But imagine my downright shock when, last night at Busch, the Pirates entered the 9th with a 3-2 lead (they scored 3 runs!!!), immediately loaded the bases with a) a muffed grounder to first, b) a botched grounder to third (the ball hit the bag and bounced over Jose Bautista’s head), and c) a hit batsmen, and then DIDN’T blow the game. I felt strangely empty when neither Chris Duncan nor Albert Pujols hit a game-winning grand slam. Like Ron Livingston said in Swingers, you get used to the pain, and you almost miss it when it’s gone.
And then imagine my surprise when they dominated the Cards this afternoon in a 6-1 win (fear not...two of those runs came off of Cardinal errors...they didn’t score 6 runs on their own).
Good
* Put it this way: when the best thing that happens all week is getting two home games rained/snowed out, you had a hideous week.
* Through three starts, Ian Snell has been amazing. He owns a 1.80 ERA with 20 K’s (and only 19 baserunners allowed) in 20 innings. Of course, the offense is so terrible that he’s only 1-1 in that stretch, but he’s done great.
* Through three starts, Tom Gorzelanny has also been outstanding. Through 20 1/3 innings, Gorzy has a 1.33 ERA and has also allowed only 19 baserunners. If the Bucs’ bats ever start making contact, these two could take the team a long ways. Too bad that probably won’t happen.
Bad
* Eleven games into the season, the Pirates have scored >5 runs in a game ONE FREAKING TIME.
* Zach Duke, after two quality starts to begin the season, absolutely imploded against the Giants on Friday. Salomon Torres, after four automatic saves to start the season, got lit up twice by the Cards. Not a good sign. No matter how good Snell and Gorzy have been, they can't carry both an offense and the rest of the pitching staff.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™
Jim Tracy, on yesterday’s 3-0 loss to Braden Looper and the Cardinals: “You need to have more than three hits, and we didn't get them.” That’s why they pay him the big bucks, folks.
I’m going to try not to be too anti-Tracy today. He’s obviously a good motivator, and so far his pitching coach, Jim Colborn, has done pretty good things with the pitching staff. And the Pirates are 4-3 and have spent a week straight over .500. The last time that happened? 2003, when they were over .500 from 3/31 to 4/18. So I really shouldn’t be complaining about anything yet.
However.
Now that Freddy Sanchez is healthy, we got to see Jim Tracy’s ideal lineup...what he envisions will take the Pirates to the playoffs...for the first time yesterday. This ideal lineup was 1) Chris Duffy, 2) Jack Wilson, 3) Freddy Sanchez (the league’s best #2 hitter, only Tracy says his “ideal spot” is #3), 4) Adam “Savior” LaRoche (3-for-27 on this young season), 5) Jason Bay (the Pirates’ best hitter for the last three years). This stupid batting order means that, played out over the course of the season, slap-hitting Jack Wilson and his .300 OBP will see about 50 more plate appearances than Jason Bay and about 16 more plate appearances than Freddy Sanchez, last year’s league leader in batting average and doubles. Does that make any sense at all? Any? Tracy has said, hundreds of times now, that this is the lineup that “makes sense” for him. And that makes sense to me. Because Tracy has no sense.
Anyway, moving on...
Good
• Well, first of all, the Pirates are 4-3. That’s not all that great when you consider they started 3-0, but...again, they were not over .500 for even one day in 2005 or 2006, so for the Pirates this is an amazing accomplishment.
• I complain—with great justification—about Jack Wilson’s horrid on-base percentage (anything less than .333 is pretty bad), but at least he’s batting .300, I guess. He even has a home run!
• Xavier Nady is hitting for power, which is good. He’s got the reputation of a decent power hitter, but he just didn’t show it in a Pirates uniform last season. His line so far is .280 AVG, .333 OBP, .600 SLG, 2 HR’s, 4 RBI’s so far. Those aren’t world-beater numbers so far, but compared to other Pirates hitters...well...that’s Babe Ruth.
• 3B Jose Bautista is batting .308 with a .462 slugging % so far. That’s very good considering how far he tailed off in the second half of last season.
• Much-maligned Chris Duffy has played phenomenal centerfield so far—which was expected—but much more surprisingly, he’s hit well too. His on-base percentage of .346 is infinitely better than how he started last week. He’s even walked twice! Pretty sure that’s more than he walked all of last season.
• The starting pitching, three-fifths of it anyway, has been quite good. In five combined starts, the first three starters of the season—Zach Duke, Ian Snell, and Tom Gorzelanny—have combined for a 2.90 ERA so far. Snell, in particular, has been amazing. In 13 innings, he’s struck out 14, walked only 2, allowed only 13 baserunners, and has a 2.08 ERA. Unfortunately, he’s 0-1, but that’s not his fault. We’re dealing with a small sample size here, but this is a much, much better start than the staff had last year.
• The two most important guys in the bullpen—closer Salomon Torres and setup man Matt Capps—have been unhittable. They’ve given up 1 ER on 1 hit in 8 1/3 innings, struck out 5, and walked none, and Torres is 4-for-4 in save opportunities. He’s a notoriously slow starter, so it’s a relief that he’s hit the ground running as a closer.
Bad
• Jim Tracy’s decision-making still sucks. Never mind the batting order thing...yesterday, with the Pirates down 1-0 in the 8th, he inserted career minor-leaguer John Wasdin into the game for no apparent reason. I guess everybody else needed resting? All I know is, my immediate thought when he came in was, “Oh great, it’s going to be 3-0 really soon.” (I swear, that’s what I thought.) And it was 3-0 really soon. Yes, he has to make do with the roster he has, and maybe the cold weather made him reluctant to pitch somebody good when they were losing already, but...John Wasdin? Ugh.
• I’ve already mentioned this, but Adam “Savior” LaRoche is 3-for-27 with one HR and THIRTEEN strikeouts. But at least he’s batting ahead of Jason Bay...
• Catcher Ronny Paulino, who was absolutely unstoppable during Spring Training, is...stoppable now. He’s 4-for-26 with one extra-base hit. But hey...he’s only struck out 4 times!
• The other two-fifths of the rotation—Paul Maholm and Tony Armas, Jr.—sucked in their first outings, allowing 22 baserunners (and 10 runs) in nine combined innings. It’s only one outing each, but still...eww...
• Beyond Capps, Torres, and the surprising Jonah Bayliss, the rest of the bullpen...well...it stinks. It’s not really their fault, though. You look at the names—John Wasdin, Damaso Marte, Juan Perez, and Shawn Chacon (who, admittedly, pitched decent in his only appearance)—and you know they’re going to suck. That’s the GM’s fault, not theirs.
Blog
Cory from MVN on the depressing home opener.
The wind blowing in from the Allegheny was freezing; the only thing colder in Pittsburgh today was the Pirates’ offense.Pat from Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke on, well, the depressing home opener.
Bad jokes aside, this is going to get old in a hurry. Ian Snell pitched a gem, but the Bucs didn’t give him any run support. If we were facing Roy Oswalt again, I wouldn’t mind—but Braden Looper, Ryan Franklin and a banged up Jason Isringhausen? They’re not world beaters.
The Pirates’ offense—the one we’ve been dreaming of, with a murderer’s row of Sanchez, LaRoche and Bay—only managed three hits. No base runners passed second. If you’re wondering, we’re averaging 3.85 runs per game—and that’s not good.
John Wasdin wasn’t particularly effective (don’t ask me why he was in the game to begin with) and neither was Marte, but Snell and Jonah Bayliss sure were. (I’m starting to believe that Ian’ll have an ERA around 2.00 to go with his five or six wins—he looks sharp.) The staff will keep us in ballgames; the batting order needs to kick things up a few notches. I won’t beat the horse, it’s long dead.
Snell could've given up no runs today and it would've been too many. Chris Duffy was the only Pirate that got any kind of wood on the ball the whole game today. I know it was cold out, but three hits against Looper, Franklin, and Isringhausen is pretty bad (though admittedly, Isringhausen looked better than last year). I don't even know what to say, really? LaRoche looks clueless at the plate in person, kind of like he's never seen a baseball before. It's too early to start piling on guys, but I'm a little more concerned now.Two other things of note: Jason Bay batted fifth today. That is a bad idea. I don't like to harp on the lineup, but Bay shouldn't be fifth and Bautista shouldn't be eighth. Also, John Wasdin is not an eighth inning guy in a one run game. Ever.And finally, a blog I’m really excited about...being that I’m a numbers nerd and all...
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™ - 162-0 Baby!!!
Fresh off of a come-from-behind, extra-inning 4-2 win over the Astros in Minute Maid Park—where the Pirates now have an all-time record of 12-42—I’m going to say as few bad things as possible. It was a great way to start off the season, so it’s positivity time!!
Good
* Zach Duke pitched a pretty strong game despite the fact that he had 0 K’s. He relied on his defense to get him through a couple of tough stretches, and while last year that would have been a recipe for disaster, the D came through yesterday.
* Down 2-0 in the 8th, OF Nate McLouth, who showed next to nothing in Spring Training, hit a pinch-hit solo homerun. Down 2-1 with 2 outs in the 9th, Xavier Nady hit another solo HR to tie the game. At 2-2 in the top of the 10th, Jason Bay, who had looked pretty bad at the plate through the first 9 innings, hit 2-run, game-winning HR. Not a lot of offense, but that’s pretty much the definition of “came through when it counted.”
* The bullpen looked great. Rookie Jonah Bayliss was trusted to get a couple of outs in the 8th, and he came through. Matt Capps cruised through the 9th. New closer Salomon Torres, who is renowned for struggling mightily in April and May before becoming one of the best relievers in baseball in August and September, cruised through his first save opportunity with a 1-2-3 10th inning.
* The defense looked great. Who knows how long this will last, but much-maligned Jose Castillo—who was considered a great defender with lots of offensive potential before a disastrous 2006 season which saw him gain about 80 pounds, lose his defensive range, make a ton of errors, regress at the plate, and lose his starting job until Freddy Sanchez had to start the season on the DL—made a series of great defensive plays. New 3B Jose Bautista and 1B Adam LaRoche handled the corners well, and CF Chris Duffy nailed a guy at home plate to help avoid what could have been a big inning.
* Chris Duffy led off the season with a walk!! Duffy’s known for having tons of speed but absolutely no patience at the plate—a deadly trait for a leadoff hitter—so the simple act of taking some pitches and walking to first base was tremendously encouraging, even if he didn’t end up scoring.
Bad
* Some of the happiness of an Opening Day win wore off when I realized that the Pirates’ 1-0 record was their first winning record since...May 29, 2004. Think about that. Almost three years since the Pirates were even 1 game over .500. Good god.
* Adam “Savior” LaRoche went 0-5 with 4 K’s. Ouch. The Pirates REALLY need him to provide an offensive threat. Jason Bay batted ahead of him and actually saw a bunch of strikes, unlike the entire 2006 season. If opposing pitchers can’t pitch around Bay because LaRoche is on-deck, Bay will have a monstrous season. Of course, Jim Tracy is still the manager, and he will likely move Bay to the 5-hole—protected by catcher Ronny Paulino, who also went 0-for-5 yesterday—when Sanchez is off the DL, which is just an awful idea and kills the “your best hitter bats third” principle, so nevermind.
* After righties Xavier Nady and Jose Bautista crushed Houston closer Brad Lidge in the 9th inning (and righty Jose Castillo walked, just about as big a surprise as Duffy walking), Jim Tracy had to send a pinch hitter to the plate because the pitcher’s spot was up. Did he send righty power-hitter Brad Eldred, who hit about 19 HR’s in the spring, to the plate? No, he went with 28-year old rookie (and lefty) Don Kelly, who admittedly had a decent at-bat before popping out harmlessly to the shortstop. Tracy is an “old school” guy with “old school” principles. You bat lefty-vs-righty no matter what, even when statistics and the present tense suggest otherwise. His in-game skills are completely unimpressive to me, and his habit of taking complete credit for anything good that happens and basically blaming the players for the bad stuff gets more and more annoying (“I've talked about building blocks, about our players getting better, about believing in each other. ... My goodness, did you see that?”), but he seems to be a decent motivator, so I’ll try my best to cut him some slack. For now. But when Sanchez comes back and the Pirates’ best hitter gets sent to the 5th spot in the order—and therefore loses plate appearances for no good reason—I’ll start to get a bit pissy.
* What happens when the bullpen and the defense aren't fantastic?
Bottom line for this season: GM Dave Littlefield still sucks (there is officially 1 prospect at AAA, 2 at AA, and I’m pretty sure 0-1 at A+), and I’m completely unimpressed with Jim Tracy. However, this could be a team with strong, young pitching (acquired mostly by the previous GM), a possibly-solid bullpen, an improved defense, and (by default) an improved offense. If the team overachieves this year (which is at least 1% feasible being that the NL Central will likely be horrid), I’m totally on-board. The 83-79 success of the 2003 Royals completely set the organization back about 5 years—they got extremely lucky with runners in scoring position and won a ton of 1-run games, and the rash of good luck made their bad GM think he was pretty competent, and he got to stay on another 2.5 years despite not actually being a good GM. I could see the same sort of thing happening in Pittsburgh, and that really wouldn’t be good down the line, but you know what? I can’t intentionally root against Pittsburgh simply because I want the GM to get fired. Just like I couldn’t root against Mizzou in basketball even when it was obvious that Quin Snyder was going to have to leave before the program could start looking up. I won’t be heartbroken if/when the Pirates start to fall apart, but if they choose to play good baseball for a few months, I’m all for it. But that's getting ahead of the game, considering they're all of 1-0.
Blog
There were numerous live-blogs of last night’s game. Live blogs are, sadly, always more entertaining when the Pirates are playing terribly, so these aren’t amazingly fun reads, but...I think that’s a fair tradeoff.
UPDATE, 9:52pm: Once again, the Bucs were down 2-1 in the 8th, and once again, they came back and won, this time 3-2. Starter Ian Snell struck out 11 in just 6 innings, Xavier Nady hit another HR, and the bullpen held up again. Well done. They are two games over .500 for the first time since 4/18/2004, when they were 7-5. Wow. When's the last time they were three games over .500? 4/12/2003, when they were 7-4. Yeah, that one might be too much to ask.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Tuesday Pirates Rant™ - Less than a week till Opening Day!
A quick Rant™ today as we get closer to Opening Day. Here’s some Pirates news in bullet form...
- Freddy Sanchez, defending NL batting champ, will most likely start the season on the DL after spraining his knee early in Spring Training. He’s missed most of Spring Training, and considering how his batting style is based totally on timing and a quick bat, that’s not the most encouraging news.
- Jose Castillo, the 2006 winner of the “Worst and Fattest 2B in Baseball” award, lost his starting job this year. However, thanks to Sanchez’ injury, he (at least momentarily) got it back. Goodie. Last week, Orel Hershiser said Castillo “has a lazy approach to the game,” but thanks to injuries, he’s still a starter.
- Chris Duffy promises that his .163 Spring Training average (with a massive walk total of 1) should not remind anybody of the fact that he batted <.200 for the first few months of the season, then got sent down to AAA, had a mental breakdown, didn’t report, and basically wasted the first four months of the 2006 season. Nope. “Everything’s going to be fine.” Good to know.
- Promising lefty Tom Gorzelanny, who did pretty well in August and September last year and was slotted to be the #4 starter this season, is now the #5 starter—with a teeny tiny leash—after a wretched Spring Training. Lefties Sean Burnett (their #1 prospect in ’04 before getting Tommy John surgery...which will soon be named Promising Pirates Pitcher surgery) and Shane Youman were absolutely dominant in Spring (despite neither being able to actually strike people out), and both were sent down to AAA last week.
- Brad Lincoln, the Pirates’ new #1 pitching prospect, has avoided getting Promising Pirates Pitcher surgery, against all odds...at least for the time being.
Question 1. "The correlation between total team runs and which spot in the batting order is the strongest:Without a doubt, Pirates GM Dave Littlefield would answer (A) to this question.
(A) leadoff
(B) second
(C) cleanup
(D) 8th in the NL and 9th in the AL
Answer: secondThe Pirates have 3 good hitters—Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez, and Adam LaRoche. Needless to say, 3 is not 5.
From the 1986 Baseball Abstract: "[T]he correlation of runs scored in the number two slot to the total runs scored by the team is closer than for any other position--that is, the teams which got a lot of runs out of their number two hitters, also got a lot of runs period."
There are two explanations here from the Abstract: (1) "This could also be taken to reflect the marginal nature of the position. Everybody has at least one good hitter to hit third, so that doesn't tell you that much about the offense, but the only teams which have good hitters hitting second are those which have five good hitters, hence score lots of runs."
(2) "[M]any managers tend to waste the second spot in the order by putting somebody there who isn't one of the better hitters on the team....Too many managers will say 'bat control' as if these words were a magic wand, and place some .260 hitter with a secondary average of .150 batting second....”Jim Tracy absolutely insists on batting Jack “Magic Wand” Wilson in the 2 slot because of his bat control. Jack Wilson’s career batting average is .265. His career secondary average is .161. Just thought I’d point that out.