So Giuliani's doing so well in Iowa that he's thinking about skipping it altogether. Repubs really seem to be catching onto the fact that their candidates are horribly flawed. I think last week's "I will torture better than you" fest turned off as many people as it turned on (then again, the party seems to be united in wanting to ban Ron Paul from future debates, so maybe it turned off no one), and even though guys like Newty and Fred Thompson aren't any better, the fact that they're not out revealing their horrid flaws on a daily basis is starting to be a good thing. All the parity helps Romney, I think, with his good standing in Iowa and his strong fundraising, but...if anybody other than Hillary gets the Dem nod, I'm thinking it might be a trouncing in the general election.
New Rep Odds:
Romney 28%
McCain 25%
Giuliani 23%
Newty 12%
Thompson 12%
New Dem Odds:
Obama 40%
Hillary 29%
Edwards 23%
Other 8%
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Only 532 days to go...
Monday, April 30, 2007
Only 554 days to go...
Barack Obama has officially become both not authentically black enough, and super-authentic. Well done, Senator Obama.
Meanwhile, "hate is starting to turn off the Christians." Or so says Dana B. I think it's in no way turning off the "Christians" who have made their name on TV as "moral values" watchdogs; instead it's already fully turned off the real-life Christians who have paid attention to more than one or two of their Bible readings.
And finally, if Rudy were a surgeon, it would be okay for him to milk "[his] reputation [formed during a deadly disaster] for crass [careerist] gain is, obviously, despicable", right? Or something like that?
And since I haven't done it in a while...the latest odds:
Obama 45%
Hillary 37%
Edwards 16%
Other 2%
And...
Rudy 36%
Romney 34%
McCain 16%
Other 14%
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Only 559 days to go...
Gotta love Obama slamming (and mocking) Rudy with this remark:
Rudy Giuliani today has taken the politics of fear to a new low and I believe Americans are ready to reject those kind of politics. America’s mayor should know that when it comes to 9/11 and fighting terrorists, America is united.The poll numbers favor Dems on so many issues right now...we better see this attitude and bite continue. Via the same link, Edwards piles on Rudy as well...
As far as the facts are concerned, the current Republican administration led us into a war in Iraq that has made us less safe and undermined the fight against al Qaeda. If that's the 'Republican' way to fight terror, Giuliani should know that the American people are looking for a better plan.Oh, and John McCain is officially running for president. Feel the excitement!! Wait, you didn't feel it? You should. Just thinking about how much his soul he's already sold...there's no telling what he's capable of now that his name is actually in the hat!
Monday, April 09, 2007
Only 575 days to go...
Over at HuffPo, Bruno Giussani has an interesting take on the role of the Internet in the 2008 election.
[T]he campaign up to 2008 will be wild. The tools are still too new, the possibilities too exciting, and a politically mature usage of them will take time to settle in.You know my take on it. I do think personality is going to play a huge role, and not only because of the Internet (which was somewhat his point). I have the feeling people are growing desperate for authenticity, which is why Obama and Edwards combined to raise about $40 million in the first quarter...and why Guiliani is leading Republicans.
Which means that 2008 -- boosted by California moving their primary to February, which changes the whole dynamics -- will probably be a campaign hitched to personality and authenticity, not to policies. That's the only signal that may emerge from the growing noise: leadership. How will this person respond in a crisis? Can I trust him or her to take the right decisions? Empathy and warmth will trump any carefully drafted social-security reform plan. Because with the message blurred by its own multiplicity, the messenger will become the (only) message.
And I have the impression that that's the way Barack Obama and John Edwards are shaping their campaign.
Of course, Guiliani isn’t actually even 1% genuine and authentic, but it seems he still has the aura...for now, at least...