All eyes are on Democrats...

...man, just saying those five words gives me the heebee jeebees, but it's true. Three things are known about the November mid-terms:

1. Republicans are going to scream that Democrats are defeatists.
2. The Bush Administration will crank up the terror alerts every time a discouraging poll comes out.
3. Dear Leader will once again be painted as the John Wayne to America's Maureen O'Hara, saving the world with a strut and a drawl.
3. The liberal media will repeat whatever talking points are given to them.

No matter how much we complain, none of those three things are going to change. Sure, some folks might exceed even cynical expectations from time to time, but we know what game will be played here. What we don't know is, what Democrats will do about it.

Dana B. has a post up at the moment that looks at this issue. First, he gives a nice, hearty bitchslap to my own optimism about the current state of the polls and what it could mean for Democrats.

Anyone seeking a Clue as to Republican strategy for 2006 need look no further than here.

It's a 1971 poll showing that, at that time, 73% of Americans wanted our troops out of Vietnam.

Compare that to right now, when just 60% want our troops out of Iraq within a year.

Yet the Republicans won the next election, won it convincingly, won it so convincingly that to this day Democrats are scared of being McGovernized.

So there's no fear in the poll numbers for Republicans. They figure they can ratchet up the terror alerts on demand, keep interest rates from rising (despite inflation), depend on a significant number of Democrats being consumed with defending themselves against the false charge of defeatism, and gut out a narrow win with an off-year base vote.

I knew Vietnam polls were slanted in the favor of withdrawl by '71, but I didn't know they were that slanted. That really is kind of scary considering just how withdrawn and insecure Dems seem to get the moment the word "McGovern" is uttered. It's pretty Pavlovian by this point. Ring the McGovern bell, and Dem politicians nationwide will start shaking and wringing their hands.

Dana also lists five ways to re-label Iraq and the War on Terror, and they make perfect sense, but I must say...coming up with #-point plans has not been the Dems' problem. It's party-wide execution that has been the issue.

In high school, we used to play a game with one of my best friends. Every time she started telling a story, we'd start interrupting her every 10 seconds to throw her off and see if we could make her forget what she was talking about. I know...high schoolers are so cruel and all that...but apparently we were political visionaries. Every time a Dem gets brave, somebody yells the word "terror" or, again, "McGovern", and the brave Dems misplace their brains and their balls and once again start wringing their hands.

Digby has more on how the midterms are being shaped:

The constant reference to McGovern is this season's Swift Boat smear. Since Karl doesn't have a single candidate to tar with cowardly Vietnam stories he has chosen instead to run against the fabled "left wing" of the Democratic party circa 68-72. The point is less to convince the electorate than it is to trash talk the Democrats into backing off a harsh critique of the war. And it's remarkably effective. As we can see from countless articles and columns of the past few weeks, nothing sends the timorous insider Dems scurrying like an accusation that the Party is in the clutches of the crazy liberals. The man knows his adversaries.

But the other side of the coin is to present the Codpiece as grown-up contrast and rehab his reputation. Bush is, aftger all, remarkably unpopular and he is what's dragging down the party. Part of the plan requires him and all his minions to swagger and talk tough, of course. But this formulation of the hippie kids running amuck also needs something less confrontational: the patient parent who can calm the waters. Here comes Ben Cartwright, the pops of the Ponderosa whose credo was"A man's never wrong doing what he thinks is right."

I don't think it's going to work again. It's like the third sequel of a bad movie. The hippie extremist plot is absurd, the hysterical dialog is unintentionally funny and the actors are out of shape and looking old. Worst of all, the star is now box-office poison.

I dunno. I think a very large % of Americans seem to have serious long-term memory issues, and if the "defeatist hippies" and "Bush is a strong, manly leader" talking points continue without serious, ballsy opposition for the next 2.5 months, then I do think it's going to work again. Come on, Dems. All eyes are on you.