Weather, Water, Energy 1-29-07

The world is waiting for the Friday issuance of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report that has galvanized most of the non-cork brains in the world. You know, temps going up 2.5-10.4 degrees F (the letter we nonconformists use). What's most interesting about this is that the protest of the report right now comes not from the usual ostriches but from scientists who insist that, because the report hasn't dealt with the difficult-to-model ice cap melts, the change will be harder and faster than the report allows. The critics argue that the IPCC is hurting the world by consciously taking a conservative perspective. Sounds like a climate report done by Kevin Drum.

The criticism mirrors what we've been saying here lately, that the nonlinear nature of what's happening means that, absent a history that tells us what to expect, we really can't predict. Things could be worse than the IPCC says, despite the tendency to think they're exaggerating. Here are a couple of quotes.

They "don't take into account the gorillas -- Greenland and Antarctica," said Ohio State University earth sciences professor Lonnie Thompson, a polar ice specialist. "I think there are unpleasant surprises as we move into the 21st century."

Michael MacCracken, who until 2001 coordinated the official US government reviews of the international climate report on global warming, has fired off a letter of protest over the omission.

The melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are a fairly recent development that has taken scientists by surprise. They don't know how to forecast its effects in their computer models. But many fear it means that the world's coastlines will be swamped much earlier than most predict.

Think they're wrong? Well, new data also show mountain glaciers are melting faster than in the past and than predicted, and this French guy says things like "The major risk is that of the speed of climate change" and " If we were in a very stable world it would not be so bad if it were a bit hotter or a bit colder. But the risk is of a very quick transition that we can have from one world to another, because it is very destabilising at every level, including socially and politically." In any case, it's certainly gotten the international money men's attention, the World Economic Forum at Davos, where environmental issues are finally getting necessary attention (h/t Grist). And E.O. Wilson says we will see an accord on climate action, mainly because evangelicals are coming around . . . um, okay. Does he have any idea how many evangelicals there are in TX, where the top leadership is dadgum proud of its refusal to acknowledge global warming (h/t Grist)?

"Absolutely," Gov. Rick Perry replied when asked recently by the Star-Telegram whether there is scientific doubt that human activity causes global warming. "I am not going to put the state of Texas in a competitive economic disadvantage on some science that may or may not be correct."

State Rep. Phil King said: "I think it's just bad science. I think global warming is bad science." The Weatherford Republican has responsibility for electric-utility issues in the House.

I really do think the judgment of history will be that this country never should have agreed to take TX into the Union. Certainly they'll wonder why on earth we put two disastrous bravado-types from there in the White House in one generation. Guess that says nothing good about the rest of us, doesn't it? What's the saying, "Fool me once . . . uh, fool me . . . uh. . . ." (This is a good point to remember the next time we report national surveys about US opinions about climate change--one giant dumbass state filled with determined morons can skew tons of results.) At least the experts believe that underdeveloped nations, which would have to include TX, will the be ones really badly hit by the changes. I love how they've forgotten the citizens of those nations have feet and know how to use them. . . . Meanwhile, governors, Dems AND Repubs, are taking reality seriously in non-TX states. MT is dedicating itself to "green" coal, whatever that is; WI is creating a global warming task force and an energy independence office; and SC (with the REPUB!!!, don't tell Bushnev or Inhov) is appointing a global warming commission to figure out how to deal with it.

Let's talk water issues a little. Turns out that the weather-stricken Aussies are putting serious effort into recycling waste water (purified supposedly). Their PM has overnight turned into a national resource. . . . Meanwhile, here at home, the Army Corps of Engineers has announced that there are 146 levees nationally that have an "unacceptable risk" of failure in a major flood. Want to know if your levee is one of them? Sorry, secret info. Don't want people getting scared. It's best for you not to know. . . . Tired of depressing news? Feel like a period on a nice Hawaiian beach would be just what you need? Um, better do it sooner rather than later. . . sorry.