Arianna has a good point about Hillary that I failed to take into consideration last week when I said Hillary only had a 10-15% chance of winning the nomination: lots of big-money people feel a (sad) loyalty to her no matter how much Obama or anybody else excites them.
Their struggle is palpable. And understandable. Many of the reasons they give for continuing to support Hillary are good and honorable: loyalty, friendship, duty, a shared history (Hey, remember that time Bill gave you that medal, or that great night we all spent talking in the Lincoln bedroom? And how about that night we honored you at the Kennedy Center? Good times). It's like having kids with someone; you don't just walk away from that without a backward glance-- no matter how passionless the relationship has become.And make no mistake, Team Hillary has made it crystal clear that, at least when it comes to politics, there will be zero tolerance for dalliances.
Of course, some of the reasons people are reluctant to jump ship on Hillary are based on fear: What if she wins and I backed Barack? What if she finds those late night e-mails in which I get all hot and bothered about Barack's Iraq withdrawal plan or those IMs in which I pine over his leadership and maxed out because of his authenticity?
Of course, this sleaze is all the more reason not to vote for, but it’s all the more reason people will. I will say boo to that, but I will also say that I should bump her odds up to the 35-40% range. So I guess that makes my current forecast...
Hillary 35%
Obama 35%
Edwards 20%
Anybody Else 10%
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