Seriously, somebody take the mic away from James Carville. I'm sure he's got quite the death grip on it, and tugging it away from him will be harder than it looks (thin but wiry), but...he's just not in any way, shape, or form relevant to the national discussion any longer. And this crap is just speeding up the inevitable.
There was James Carville on CNN's Situation Room, desperately trying to explain why Sen. Clinton voted for the war, even though other senators who had been given the same faulty intel she had, voted against it: "But they weren't from New York," he said. "Their state wasn't hit. They didn't have to deal with the grief of these 3,000 people."Apparently, according to James Carville, the only way to appear tough is to tie 9/11 to Iraq. Well guess what, James...you’re done. People want 'smart and strong in your convictions', not 'tough for tough’s sake.'
Then again...
Keep talking, James. Every time you open your mouth, you bring Hillary down even worse than her vote for Iraq does.
This may be naive optimism talking, but I'm really starting to think that Hillary has about a 10-15% chance, at best, of scoring the Dem nod. Maybe even less than that. She can amass the biggest war chest in the history of the world, and I just don't think it's going to happen. As BooMan has pointed out (h/t Avedon), there are severe hints of Muskie bleeding through. Now, I was not alive in 1972 (though I have read Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail...that counts, right?), so I’ll leave that commentary to others, but there are two tremendous factors working against Hillary at the moment.
1. She has absolutely no sense of “realness” to her whatsoever. I have no doubt that she stands for (mostly) the right things, and let’s be honest—I’d vote for her against Sellout McCain or Manwhore Guiliani, but she just can’t open her mouth at this point without betraying a sense of political calculation. She has more charisma (somehow) than John Kerry, but she also has an even bigger hint of calculation, and she’s just taken too damn many positions on too many damn issues to inspire people like a certain other candidate is/will. Which leads to...
2. Obamania. Not saying he’s Bobby Kennedy II, but...what was the line from American President? “They're so thirsty for it they'll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there's no water, they'll drink the sand”? Well...people are so desperate for a Bobby II that they’re seeing what they want to see in him. And who knows...he might actually be the real thing. If he can get through the next 11 months or so without a DeanScream-esque misstep, I think the nomination’s his (sans a change in the game, like if Gore decides to run or something).
The press (and his opponents) can go on and on about his inexperience as a disadvantage, but I honestly think that works to his advantage. He doesn’t have any votes to defend, and that will help him considerably. I don’t personally know what I think of Obama yet (too much touchy feely talk about "coming together," but he still might be the best horse in the race...other than Chris Dodd, of course...but I’m not sure it matters. Four years ago, people were drawn to Howard Dean because he was speaking truth to power. He was the only one saying what thousands of voters were thinking. People are not drawn to Obama for the same reasons, but if he establishes himself in the netroots (and let’s face it, Edwards’ blogger issue can only help that), then I cannot even imagine how much money he will raise. Hillary can get all the big money she wants—people have never been, and will never be, as jazzed to be in her presence as people are for Obama right now. I haven’t seen anything like this, especially this early in the campaign, and at this point, I’d say he’s got about a 60% chance of winning the nod. And if he does, I think he destroys his Republican counterpart. Imagine how old John McCain will seem next to Obama? All it’s going to take is for him not to screw up (and maybe for Al Gore to not enter the race). Then again, plenty of strong-looking candidates have screwed up in the past. This is politics, after all.
And then again, exactly four years ago I thought John Kerry didn't have a shot either, and for a lot of the exact same reasons. So really...whaddo I know? All I know is, James Carville should keep talking. It helps certain Democrats, but not in the way he thinks it does.
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