Tuesday, October 03, 2006

TUESDAY PIRATES RANT™!! Best 67-95 Team This Season!!

Well, I guess this means Good Nonsense has been around six months, as the first official season of the Tuesday Pirates Rant™ has come to an end. Oh, the memories. Let's revisit what I said in the first Rant™ ever:

[S]uddenly Dave Littlefield was in a predicament. Even though the smartest thing to do at that point would have been to pocket the cash, let the young'ins take their lumps in '06, and go crazy for '07, a) he had promised to spend money and couldn't let the fans down (talk about a bad PR move), and b) ownership wanted to pretend that things were headed in the right direction since they were hosting the All-Star game and all. So he spent money on names people would recognize. On Joe Randa, even though Freddie Sanchez (already in their system, much cheaper, and about 6-8 years Randa's junior) was probably better at 3B. On Jeromy Burnitz, even though Craig Wilson (already in their system, much cheaper, and about 6-8 years Burnitz' junior) was probably better at RF. A righty/lefty Wilson/Burnitz platoon in RF had promise, but new manager Jim Tracy (an uninspiring choice in his on right) said no, Burnitz is the starter no matter what. They traded for Sean Casey, a 6'4/225 singles hitter and double-play machine. They signed 184-year old Roberto Hernandez to replace 127-year old Jose Mesa. And that was that. A $15 million payroll increase that did nothing but take away AB's from Sanchez and C. Wilson and increase the 25-man roster's average age by about 12 years.
For the record, Freddy Sanchez was definitely better, as the NL Batting Title would suggest. Seriously, has that ever happened before? You start the year with one of the worst teams in baseball thinking that Joe Randa is a better option than you, and you end up with the best batting average in the NL? Just strange. Cool, but strange.

Then again, it makes sense considering that the Pirates only ended up with Sanchez in the first place because of a botched trade in 2003. You see, the Pirates had originally traded Jeff Suppan and Mike Gonzalez to Boston at the Trading Deadline for Brandon Lyon and somebody named Anastacio Ramirez. Well, it turns out Lyon had an arm problem, so the Pirates then gave Lyon back to the Sox, along with Scott Sauerbeck, for Sanchez and Gonzalez. This year, Sanchez won the batting title and Gonzalez was one of the best closers in baseball (24-for-24) until sitting out the last few weeks with tendonitis.

In other words, if Dave Littlefield had originally gotten his way, this Pirates team wouldn't have had Sanchez or Gonzalez, two of their top five players. And did I mention that, that same year, if Littlefield had gotten his way, he'd have traded Brian Giles to the Padres for Oliver Perez and Xavier Nady (and a crap minor leaguer) instead of Oliver Perez and Jason Bay (and the same crap minor leaguer)? So...if he'd gotten his way, THREE of the top five players on the team wouldn't have been in Pittsburgh this year.

Oh, and then there's the whole "The Phillies will trade me Ryan Howard for Kip Wells (or Kris Benson), but I think I'll hold out for a better deal" thing.

And there's the problem.

Yes, the Pirates had a winning post-All-Star-Break record
for the first time since (gag) 1992 despite getting outscored 323-280 and outhomered 74-47 during that span (in other words, the bad luck from the first half of the season more than balanced out in the second half...and yet they managed to win only 67 games with neutral luck), once again stirring up hope for next season.

Yes, the young Pirates rotation improved drastically over the second half of the season, contributing to a post-break staff ERA of 4.01, third best in the National League.

Yes, a lot of the young players that were horrifically sucky in the first half of the season (Chris Duffy, I'm looking in your direction) actually ended up playing quite well down the stretch.

But this managed to occur despite the general manager's moves, not because of them. And when you're still a couple of good moves away from having a decent team, that's a problem. Dumb luck only takes you so far.

Let me illustrate this with two more points: the 2006 trading deadline, and the Chris Young near no-hitter.

1) I made my thoughts quite clear on the trades that were made around this year's trading deadline
back in early August, and I think I've been proven quite correct (not that it took a genius to see what I saw at that point). With the news that the Pirates likely won't tender Shawn Chacon a contract next season, let's see what they ended up trading and receiving, one more time for old time's sake. And since Nady did an admirable Craig Wilson impersonation, right down to the hitting .380 for a month, then going on a long 0-for slump, I'll cancel those two out.
What the Pirates gave up:
- Kip Wells, who (this is the last time I'll mention this, I promise) could have been traded for Ryan Howard at one time
- Oliver Perez, who (this is the last time I'll mention this, I promise) could have been traded for Hank Blalock at one time
- Roberto Hernandez
- Sean Casey

What the Pirates got in return:
- Two months of Shawn Chacon and his 5+ ERA
- Two minor league relief pitchers (one of whom pitched 10 games for the Bucs in September and emerged with an 8.31 ERA)
So yes, Nady could contribute to a winning team (he was doing just fine with the Mets for the first four months of the season). And yes, the two relievers might actually make some kind of contribution in the future. And yes, Wilson and Perez have done next to nothing with their new teams (I don't believe either one made their team's playoff roster). But you look at what he could have gotten compared to what he did, and it's embarassing.

2) On September 22, a young Padre pitcher named Chris Young took a
no-hitter into the 9th inning against the Pirates, only two have Joe Randa break it up with a long homerun (seriously, Randa just got in everybody's way this year, didn't he? Just kidding...sort of). What's the big deal there? Even good teams get no-hit sometimes. Well...take a look at the December 20 transaction from this page of previous Pirate transactions:

Acquired RHP Matt Herges from the Montreal Expos in exchange for minor league pitchers Chris Young and Jon Searles
What's so weird about that? I mean, the Tigers traded John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander once. Stuff happens. Well, there's a little bitterness involved, maybe, because of the March 26 transaction from this page:

Optioned outfielder Adam Hyzdu to Triple-A Nashville and gave pitcher Matt Herges his unconditional release.
Herges ended up with a 2.62 ERA in 2003 for the Padres and Giants. Young ended up going 11-5 with a 3.46 ERA this year with the Padres. Neither made the field for the Pirates. Oh, and the Pirates let Bronson Arroyo, now an All-Star for the Reds, go on waivers in February of that same year. Young and Arroyo would have been the two best pitchers on this Pirates team. And Ryan Howard would have given them the NL homerun king to go along with batting champ Sanchez.

I know, coulda woulda shoulda. But here's my point (and I do have one...I'm not just doing this to pick at scabs...though you have to admit, that's one helluva coulda woulda shoulda): going into this offseason, the Pirates have made it clear that they want a veteran right-handed starting pitcher (their #1 choice is Jason Schmidt...yeah, like he's going to want to come back to Pittsburgh) and a young, left-handed power hitter. Admittedly, if they were to obtain these two pieces, they really could make some noise in the Central. They really do have some talent and, at least in the players' own eyes, momentum for 2007.

But with this absolutely wretched history of decision-making at the GM level, what are the chances that they're willing or able to make the moves they need to make? I'm an optimist, so I can't say it's 0%...but it's definitely not more than 5%. Our GM's best moves were made despite his own intentions, and Pirates fans' only hope is another happy accident. Instead of Jason Schmidt and (name young power-hitter hiere), the Pirates are infinitely more likely to end up with 40-year old Luis Gonzalez and Byung-Hyun Kim.

Obviously there's no need for another Rant any time soon now that we're into the postseason, or as the Pirates call this time of year, vacation. As moves are made, your Tuesday dose of bitterness will come and go. If you're just dying for a Pirates fix, feel free to check out the "We're going to be next year's Tigers!" propaganda at the Pirates' official site, or visit one of the two Pirates blogs listed on the Good Nonsense sidebar--Bucs Dugout or Where Is Van Slyke. That's where I get all my info anyway.