It is time. I’ve been putting off writing a new Rant™ for as long as possible, but we’re over halfway through March, and it’s time to start looking at the season ahead. Feel the excitement.
Actually, there is a little bit of excitement because, quite simply, it’s halfway through March, and March is the time for all baseball fans to dream a little bit.
Well, most Marches are. Last March, fresh off the Pirates’ brilliant signings of the decrepit Jeromy Burnitz and almost-decrepit Joe Randa (and a trade for Sean “Runs the 40 in 6.2 seconds” Casey), even my most optimistic prediction was “Pirates start fast, the really old and really young players lose their legs as the season wears on, Pirates finish with 75-78 wins.” Not exactly the stuff of dreams there. But of course, the Pirates didn’t start fast. In fact, they had one of the worst starts I’ve ever seen. At the end of April, they were 7-19. At the end of May, 19-34. It was absolutely brutal, though it did give me plenty of Rant™ fodder.
Between November 2005 and November 2006, Dave Littlefield quite possibly pulled off the worst 12-month span for a GM in the history of baseball (well, at least Top Ten). His free agent signings were horrible, not only because the guys he signed were horrible, but because their presence blocked (temporarily, at least) the track of young guys who have at least an ounce of potential. His trading deadline feats were five steps beyond horrible. Again, it gave great Rant™ fodder, but come on.
Despite having the worst GM in baseball, the Pirates’ play improved after the All-Star break. Well, their record did at least. After the Break, their record was 37-35. While marginally improved play—especially from the young pitchings taff—was involved, most of the reason for success was simply a regression to the mean. Over the first half of the season, the Buccos’ record in 1-run games was wretched, and their record was well below where their Pythagorean Record suggested it should have been. After the All-Star Break, their 1-run record was great, and they won more games than their Pythagorean Record suggested.
In other words, they underachieved in the first half of the season and slightly overachieved in the second half. Whoopee. In baseball, things tend to balance out in the world of records and statistics. But that didn’t stop manager Jim Tracy for taking all the credit in the world for the marginal improvement, claiming that it proved that his methods worked, and that the reason for their success was that the players simply started listening to him. And he’s been repeating this line for the last five months. Humble man, that Jim Tracy.
Good
Anyway, this offseason, Dave Littlefield has actually made some smart decisions. (Either that, or the bar has been lowered so far that decisions that aren’t totally stupid look like the work of genius.) His major move was to spend about four months working on a trade for the Braves’ Adam LaRoche, finally pulling off the deal in January. It cost him closer Mike Gonzalez and #3 prospect SS Brent Lillibridge, but he got his man, and the Pirates’ offense is unquestionably better because of it (of course, the bullpen is unquestionably worse, but we’ll deal with that later).
The LaRoche trade actually served a secondary (but every bit as positive) purpose as well—it distracted Littlefield and took up so much of his energy for so long that he wasn’t able to overpay for 38-year old free agents. But the time the trade was done, almost all of the free agents had been yanked up for 300% what they were worth. I guess you could consider his avoidence of free agents as some sort of smart strategery, but I’m not willing to give Littlefield that much credit. I say he was just distracted. Otherwise, the pull of 49-year old Darin Erstad or 62-year old Luis Gonzalez would have just been too strong.
The other thing Littlefield did this offseason that could be considered smart by some definition was, he actually began to look into new foreign lands for talent. Instead of continuing to get 8th-tier Dominican and Venezuelan talent and brag about the inroads they’re making, which was the general international strategy for the last five years, he turned to Japan and Cuba...well, Cuban refugees, anyway.
From Japan, he signed Masumi Kuwata. Kuwata was a major star in Japan, but now he’s washed up at 38 (he will turn 39 on April 1). His ERA in Japan over the last 3-4 seasons has been pretty wretched. In other words, Kuwata almost certainly will not make much of a positive impact on the diamond, in 2007 or any other year. And I’m pretty sure he knows he’s washed up—he actually took a lesser deal to play for the Pirates instead of signing with the Red Sox because he knew that playing time would be much easier to earn in Pittsburgh and that his window for playing in the major leagues was closing quickly.
But the Japanese media, at least the members who aren’t following every breath Daisuke Matsuzaka takes, are following every breath that Kuwata takes. And that is bringing desperately-needed international attention to the Pirates. Plus, Kuwata was signed to a minor-league deal, meaning he won’t cost much. In other words, this is a pretty good long-term situation and, gasp, a good signing. Kuwata likely won’t do anything well on the field, but the Pirates will look more appealing to future potential Japanese signees.
From Cuba, he signed refugee Yuslan Herrera to a minor-league deal as well. Herrera’s a relatively young pitcher with strong stuff. He hasn’t hardly pitched in two years, and he’ll spend most of this season (at least) in the minors, but he has talent and potential—more than can be said of any of the aforementioned 8th-tier Dominicans that the Pirates have signed recently. Last week, he obtained former Met Alay Soler, also a Cuban refugee. Soler is getting too old to be considered a prospect, but again...a) he has at least some talent, b) he’s extremely low risk, and c) it wasn’t a horribly stupid move, therefore it’s tolerable. For the first time since Littlefield became GM in (sigh) 2001, he actually made a couple of moves designed to pay off in the long-term.
Not that he should be around to reap the benefits of these moves in the long-term. But I’ll hold off on the pessimism a little longer.
Aside from the fact that Littlefield didn’t further destroy the Pirates in the offseason, what other causes for optimism exist, particularly for 2007? Well, let’s see...
* No other team in the NL Central (what a crappy division this is this year) can boast the young pitching talent the Pirates have in their starting rotation. Zach Duke (18-17, 3.72 ERA for his young career) and Crazy Ian Snell (14-11 record, 169 K’s in 2006) lead the way, followed by Paul Maholm (#1 pick in 2003) and Tom Gorzelanny (3.79 ERA in 11 starts last year). None of these pitchers are over 25. So far this spring Snell has been untouchable and Duke and Maholm have at least done better than they did last spring, so that’s encouraging. Gorzelanny has gotten lit up, possibly because he gave up beer for Lent, and while that’s a cause for some concern, it’s not horrifying just yet. The fifth spot in the rotation will likely go to either Tony Armas Jr. or Shawn Chacon. Neither of these pitchers are what we would call “good” or “talented”, but nobody in the NL Central has a #5 starter who fits that description, so I guess that makes it okay.
* The worst offense in the NL last year probably won’t be the worst this year! Oh baby! I can’t say the offense will be good per say, but it will be better with the addition of LaRoche.
* Salomon Torres probably won’t totally suck as Mike Gonzalez’ replacement at closer. Torres is known for getting off to a horrible start to the season, then being pretty much untouchable after the All-Star break. If he does that as closer, there are issues. But I’ll remain optimistic for now.
* The NL Central sucks. Yes, the Cardinals are the defending World Champs, but a) that was relatively fluky, and b) they’re a year older older and no better this season. Yes, the Cubs spent about $1 billion in free agency this season, but they’re still relying on a lot of unproven players, and Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are still injury-prone. Actually, that’s a misrepresentation of the word ‘prone.’ Prior and Wood are health-repellant. Yes, the Astros usually put together a pretty competent team, but they seem to have more and more trouble doing that each year. Without Petitte and Clemens, they’re probably in a bit of trouble. Yes, the Brewers are young and have the highest ceiling in the division, but until they actually prove themselves (which could be this year...who knows...), they’re still the Brewers. Yes, the Reds have signed (or traded for) every single middle-reliever in the major leagues, but...well, they suck.
Bad
I know, I know...you’re probably pretty disoriented right now. You tuned in to read a Rant™, and you got the Four Bullet Points of Relative Optimism. Well fear not. Here are just a few reasons why March Optimism probably won’t last till mid-April.
* How’s this for an omen? The first two notable things that happened this spring were a) the Pirates’ top pitching prospect injuring his arm, and b) the Pirates’ starting RF losing control of his intestines. Call me crazy, but that doesn’t bode well for the season.
* Upon the insistence of Jim Tracy, the top two slots in the batting order will still be manned by Chris Duffy (who’s having a bit of a problem getting on base this spring, just like last spring) and Jack Wilson (who never gets on base). Also, apparently Jason “I’m by far the best hitter the Pirates have” Bay will be batting fifth, meaning Duffy and the sub-.200 average he maintained for the first half of last season will be getting many, many more at-bats than Bay. So will Wilson, who as I may have mentioned before, never gets on base. Sticking your best hitter in the middle of the batting order instead of the #3 slot doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, but I guess I can only ask for so much from this crew.
* The Pirates’ farm system still sucks. Despite the non-stupid moves that Dave Littlefield made this offseason, he can’t avoid his past. This organization has had nothing but high draft picks over the last half-decade, and yet when Littlefield traded away Lillibridge to the Braves, the number of decent prospects in the Pirates system went from 3 to 2. That might sound unbelievable, but it’s true.
As was written on Fox Sports recently (via Bucs Dugout): “If you're going to suck eggs at the highest level to such an extent, then you'd at least like to know things are looking up down on the farm. That, however, isn't the case with the Pirates. The farm system at present is arguably one of the five worst in all of baseball.”
It’s depressing to know that, even if the Pirates overachieve in 2007 like no team (not even the 2003 Royals) has overachieved before, there is absolutely no reason for optimism down the line.
* It’s also depressing to know that, if the Pirates overachieve like I just mentioned, Dave Littlefield will take all of the credit (all of it that he can pry out of Jim Tracy’s hands, anyway) even though he deserves almost none of it. Zach Duke and Ian Snell? Drafted by Cam Bonifay. Jason Bay? Littlefield obtained him in a trade, but only because he couldn’t get Xavier Nady, the guy he really wanted (and finally obtained last summer). Freddy Sanchez? Littlefield obtained him in a trade, but only by accident—the guy he really wanted, crap reliever Brandon Lyon ended up being injured, so the Pirates and Red Sox had to engineer a new deal, and the Pirates got Sanchez instead. Also, if he had successfully traded for Lyon as was his goal, Mike Gonzalez would be in Boston right now. And it’d have been pretty hard to trade for Adam LaRoche if the main cog in the trade—Gonzalez—wasn’t with Pittsburgh.
So this is what it’s come to—the Pirates have somewhere between a 1% and 10% chance of being a competitive team this season, and if they are (and make no mistake—even the most bitter Pirates fan/blogger will get caught up in the excitement), Littlefield will get a long extension and clinch the fact that the Pirates will suck for the good portion of the next decade. Feel that March Optimism, baby.
Blog
First, we’ve got Mondesi’s House giving us 79 reasons why it’s hard to be a Pirates fan. Here’s a taste (sans the picture of Sid Bream celebrating in ’92...that picture will never be posted on my blog):
11. Simply awful drafting. The Pirates always stink, so they always get a high draft pick. The problem is, their draft picks rarely pan out. Since 1979, the Pirates have had three players who they developed who hit 30 or more HR in a season in a Pirate uniform: Aramis Ramirez in 2001 and Barry Bonds in 1992 and 1990. Before you write to correct me, they didn't develop Jason Bay or Brian Giles.And then we’ve got Pat from Where’s Van Slyke addressing this ludicrous work by Paul “Baghdad Bob” Meyer, suggesting that, since lots of the current Pirates came up together through the minors, the Pirates have no choice but to go to the playoffs one of these years.
10. The arrival of Adam LaRoche. LaRoche was celebrated as if the Pirates traded for a combination of Albert Pujols, Babe Ruth, and Roberto Clemente times 100. Anything less than 82 home runs and 195 RBI this year would be considered a disappointing season.
9. Randall Simon...weiner whacker.
8. The Aramis Ramirez Trade. Seen by many as the ultimate waving of the white flag by the Pirates as a legitimate franchise. They dealt the promising 3B, who had a reasonable contract, to the Cubs at the 2003 deadline, throwing in Kenny Lofton to boot. The Pirates received strikeout machine/3B Jose Hernandez, backup IF Bobby Hill, and minor league Matt Bruback. A sad day in PirateLand.
7. Francisco Cabrera and Sid Bream. I hate you both.
6. A serious lack of development. Players don't get better when they are drafted by the Pirates, they get worse. Their 1st-round picks in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002, all pitchers, all blew out their arms. After changing their direction to drafting position players, the Pirates selected pitcher Brad Lincoln in the 1st round of the 2006 draft. As expected, Lincoln was promptly shut down for the year shortly thereafter. Direct your ire at Senior Director of Scouting Ed Creech and Senior Director of Player Development Brian Graham, who are clearly stealing paychecks.
This is a minor league system so thin that when we traded Brent Lillibridge away most informed Pirate fans were up in arms because he was one of our best prospects. Not to rain on Lillibridge's parade, but Cal Ripken Jr. he is not.Perhaps I'm belaboring an obvious point too much, but I hate articles like this that misinform casual fans that read them. I understand that none of the Pirates were here when the losing streak started 14 years ago, but then again almost none of them were here for the 100 loss team of 2001. It's not the culture of losing that dooms this team, it's crappy baseball players and poor management. There's no correlation between number of minor leaguers that come through the system and how good the major league team is, because if the system is shit than the players that come through the system are probably going to be shit, too. The goal isn't to win in the minors, it's to produce good players for the major league team, even if it comes at the expense of wins in the minor league system. The offensive producers on the Pirates, Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche, even Xavier Nady if you count him, are all from other systems. Without those guys, we would have one awful baseball team.That’s enough for now. With 162 games to go, I guess I don’t need to exceed 3,000 words a post in mid-March, eh?
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