Weather, Water, Energy 3-16-07

David Roberts at Grist says it all in this rant about the idiocy of the smart people in the global warming debate, thinking they can just throw the facts out there and the liars and deniers won't be able to put on better shows and muck things up even more. Recounting a public debate with some absolute morons who were later judged to have won the debate by the audience, he cites one of the "smart" scientists and then takes off:

Over at RealClimate, Gavin Schmidt offers a recap, in which he says:

"The organisers asked us afterwards whether we'd have done much different in hindsight. Looking back, the answer is mostly no. We are scientists, and we talk about science and we're not going start getting into questions of personal morality and wider political agendas - and obviously that put us at a sharp disadvantage ... "

Yeah, that sounds like what went wrong. When Gavin says "questions of personal morality and wider political agendas," I think he just means, "all that stuff that's not science." He knows science, he's trained in science, he's confident in the accuracy of his scientific judgments, so that's what he's sticking with -- even if it means losing a debate, and with it a chance to change some minds.

I think that is a huge mistake, and Gavin is far, far from the only one making it. It's not just scientists who do it, either. Many people in the environmental field -- and I'd even generalize to progressives, broadly speaking -- seem to be operating on a set of assumptions: The facts,
organized and clearly conveyed, should carry the day.

When facts do not change minds, more facts are required, perhaps delivered more slowly. When facts do not change hearts, more facts are required, perhaps delivered more loudly. Those not swayed by facts are intellectually, possibly morally, deficient. If sticking (merely) to the facts means losing a debate, well, that's the price of virtue.


He just gets better from there. Folks, this is the problem with virtually every issue of importance facing us today, this "facts speak for themselves, we just need to get them out better" attitude that pervades everything from Iraq to prison policy to evolution to everything that has a chance of keeping us afloat in this changing world. Didn't we learn from Jimmy Carter's major flaw that the showmen will whupp the "smart people" every time??? The quote above couldn't be more stupid if the guy collaborated with all his other clueless scientist friends for a generation. Al Gore has succeeded because he became a performer despite the tut-tutting of the "serious" people. Get a goddam clue! As Adlai Stevenson said when told he had the vote of the thinking man, "That's not enough. I need a majority." If this is the best that can be done, there will be salty water in Silver Spring, MD, before we get moving on this disaster. And that ain't good. (And while you're at Grist, check out as well David's catch on John Edwards being the first to pledge 80% US emissions reductions by 2050. Edwards has been doing some truly disturbingly stupid things lately, but this puts a giant plus next to his name.) . . . Meanwhile, in the real world away from professors who can't find their asses with both hands if you gave them a damn map, a U of CO study indicates that "Arctic sea ice that has been dwindling for several decades may have reached a tipping point that could trigger a cascade of climate change reaching into Earth's temperate regions." Again, we don't have the historical data to get models for the sudden changes that could occur in non-linear developments like these. Things could happen very fast, not slower or not at all. . . . Oh, and this winter was the warmest on record and the aerosol "sunscreen" that blocks some of the sun's rays has weakened (I wonder if that was built into the models. If not, oops, something else that could make things happen faster.) . . . One way to deal with all this, it looks like? Geothermal, with research reporting major steps toward making it inexpensive. Wait, wasn't it geothermal that we reported Bushnev cutting in the fed budget yesterday? No, that's too stupid to happen. . . . Speaking of too stupid to happen, Sen. Inhofe (OK-REPUB) says that global warming is a Weather Channel conspiracy. . . . Speaking of too stupid to happen II, go here to find all the nutty ideas coming out from under the baseboards as money is available to "solve global warming." . . . Better happen soon. Switzerland, Italy, and Florida are both drawing up major drought relief plans, and it sounds like most of the West in the US is in great need of the same. . . . Terra Daily is burning hot on climate stories right now, including one on the problems that may come from the plethora of fuel choices that seem to be developing, one on the EU's summit next week to get member nations to lay down tough greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (and green groups' skepticism about their success), one on China's already backing off its old targets, and one on the sediments in a Turkish lake that may be able to take us back to climate conditions at the time of the Neanderthals (no, I don't mean the people in the debate at the top). . . . Climate Progress has a great post on how GM can be a renewable energy proponent in Europe and such a--holes here in the US. Of course, they get a lot of support from the Neanderthal United Auto Workers. Uh-oh, maybe those sediments aren't that old after all, just check Lake Michigan instead. . . . Finally, though, let's close on some cool and promising news. An experiment in IA is going to use wind power to fill a large underground hole with pressurized air that will then be released to generate electricity. If it works, maybe scientists will get excited enough to talk to people in intelligent instead of intellectual ways and we can get moving on these things. All right, getting carried away now. I'll quit before we start speculating about all the pressurized air emitted from enclosed spaces at frat houses and male dorms that could localize the technology enough to allow self-generating power. Not just for them but for blocks around them. Have a good weekend.